TDRI says Thai economy could shrink by 10 per cent with 9.7 million workers to lose jobs

The Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) reports that the impact of COVID-19 could force the Thai economy to contract by 10 per cent in 2020, leaving it unable to rebound to pre-COVID levels until 2023.

According to the report, the earliest planned completion date for COVID-19 vaccines is September 2021. 

The increase in household debt and the decrease in income and savings have led to the fall of household consumption and private investment, the latter of which is already shrinking due to rising non-performing loans (NPLs).

The nation-wide lockdown could force 9.7 million people into unemployment. The most affected occupations would be retailers, cooks, waiters, hairdressers, tour guides and other low-skilled workers. 

A local news media reported on Friday that the Facebook page ‘แรงงานเพื่อสังคม’ posted a gallery of workers gathering in front of the underwear factory in Nakorn Sawan. 

The Facebook post stated that the factory decided to close its business causing around 800 employees to lose their jobs without any further announcement. 

It is reported that the factory had temporarily closed its operation due to the COVID-19 outbreak but all the workers were due to resume their jobs on Friday.

The TDRI report indicated that the lower global purchasing power and higher trade barriers are continuing to cause more economic contraction. 

The link between global trade growth and economic growth will be weaker. Thai export growth would be unlikely to reach 5 per cent in the post-COVID situation.

Thai agricultural households could lose their income due to the recession and the severe drought that impacted the first half of 2020.

Rice production could fall by a further 6-7 per cent while sugarcane is expected to have a 40 per cent slump.

Tourism 

Domestic tourism could start recovering in the third quarter of 2020 with help from the government’s 22.4 billion baht stimulus.

However, international tourism would only slowly begin to improve at the end of 2020 as it focuses on selected business and medical travellers. 

TDRI expects foreign tourists, who have received vaccinations for COVID-19, to come to Thailand in 2022, but it would take until 2023 for a full recovery. 

Advertisement -

COVID-19

Thailand discovers 14 new cases of coronavirus on Friday, including a local transmission related to the Myanmar case

Thailand’s government said on Friday that it had discovered 14 new cases of coronavirus in the last...
Advertisement -
Advertisement -

Latest article

Pheu Thai will not join the parliament’s reconciliation committee

The Pheu Thai Party will not join the parliament’s reconciliation committee, its leader said on Friday.Sompong Amornvivat, the...

US Senators urging the Prayut’s government to uphold democracy and human rights in Thailand

The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee urged the Thai government to protect and uphold democratic values in Thailand, the committee’s press release...

The PM’s army residence case is over, said Wissanu, citing the similarity with Prem’s Si Sao Thewes residence

The Constitutional Court’s decision is final but anyone who feel the need to file a complaint is within their rights to do...

Consumer price index continues to contract in November

The Ministry of Commerce said on Friday that the consumer price index (CPI) continued to decline but also saw a smaller contraction...

Controversial ban on online sales of booze to come into effect amid cries from businesses

The controversial ban on online sales of alcoholic products is imminent as the law will come into effect next Monday.

Thailand discovers 14 new cases of coronavirus on Friday, including a local transmission related to the Myanmar case

Thailand’s government said on Friday that it had discovered 14 new cases of coronavirus in the last 24 hours, including one local...