Signs of life as manufacturing index expected to rise in November, December

Thailand’s manufacturing production index (MPI) dropped by -0.54 per cent year-on-year to 95.72 points in October, the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) said on Friday.

The index has, however, increased from the 2.15 per cent contraction seen in September.

Accordingly, the MPI in the 10-month period has seen a 10.33 per cent drop compared to the same time period in 2019.

While the capacity utilization rate slightly declined from 63.46 per cent in September to 63.2 per cent in October. The average utilization rate in the first 10 months stood at 60.44 per cent.

Thongchai Chawalitpichet, OIE director-general, said that the MPI in October was driven by the petroleum industry (+8.45 per cent), electronics industry (+6.07 per cent), fruit and vegetable processing industry (+19.98 per cent).

For November, the OIE expects the key factors affecting Thai manufacturing to be the government’s spending stimulus, the rising price of agricultural products, and improved import market.

Consequently, OIE expects the index to grow in November by around 0-2 per cent 2-4 per cent in December.

The full-year MPI would shrink 8 per cent together with GDP in the industrial sector dropping 7 percent under the assumption of the exchange rate at 30-35 baht per US$ and 25-45 US$ per barrel for crude oil price.

However, the industrial office said that it expected the MPI to grow in the next year by 4-5 per cent.


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