The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) on Friday revised Thailand’s economy projection to contract as much as 6.3 per cent this year, attributed to recovering in both domestic and overseas markets.
In August, the UTCC predicted the economy would contract by 9.4 per cent.
The better outlook derived from domestic factors, such as the ongoing government’s economic stimuluses measures to help people cope with the unfavorable market and the better chance for the government to accelerate investment this year.
For the overseas factors, the university mentioned optimism toward coronavirus vaccine progress, the recovering global manufacturing and service sectors following the lockdown eases, better-than-expected China’s economic growth, and easing monetary policy among central banks.
However, there are still some negative factors such as the prolonged spread of coronavirus that cause setbacks in some industries, political instability, and the strengthening of baht.
The risk from drought, shortage of containers, and uncertainty over the US-China tensions would also pressure the economy, said UTCC.
For 2021, the UTCC forecasted Thailand’s economy to grow up to 2.8 per cent.
The university also upgraded Thai exports outlook to see less contraction at 7.4 per cent from the previous 10.2 per cent while predicting 3.5 per cent growth next year.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance’s latest Thai GDP prediction in 2020 is -7.7 per cent, Kasikorn Research at -6.7 per cent, and SCB’s EIC at -6.5 per cent.