‘Movers & Shakers’ on the SET for September 15

Thailand stock market saw a decline on Tuesday, dragged down by some large market capitalized stocks such as Delta Electronics (Thailand) Plc (DELTA), Intouch Holdings Plc (INTUCH) and Advanced Info Services Plc. (ADVANC).

Shares of some of these companies dipped more than 10% in case of DELTA, while INTUCH dipped 5.78% and ADVANC dipped nearly 2%.

DELTA continued its 2^nd day of decline dropping by 10.74% on Tuesday. Shares of DELTA traded at 582 baht after having traded at 790 baht per share just 12 days ago.

Yesterday the SET Index ended at 1,623.84 points down 9.92 points with a trade volume of 84.18 billion baht.

Stocks that were the most active on Monday were

Issues to Watch Out – Politics and Economy

• Thailand is making another attempt to bring in wealthy foreigners with long term visa. Earlier this year, it floated a plant to grant 5–10-year visa to rich foreigners but did not implement. This new scheme has details.  Do not hold your breath.

• China’s economy finally slowed down a bit last month. If weakness continues, Thailand’s exports outlook could weaken in a quarter. Exports are the only driving factor behind Thailand’s GDP growth this year, sadly! See chart of Thailand exports to China below. 

Thai Banking Update – Bank of Thailand investor meeting

• Thai banking system robust despite slow loan growth. BOT injected Bt100bn in soft loans to 33,000 businesses. Debt haircut measures are off the table – but encouraging banks to help customers.

• Thailand car sales continue to struggle. Monthly data will be released next week – but we point out the recent trend to add to the pessimism many economists are highlighting. This goes against the brokers call of BUY for reopening.  

Here are some of the key stocks to look out for today

• DELTA – Foreign board saw only U$3 million net sell – which shows that the flows are local. watch for volatile open today after another U$15 million net NVDR sell yesterday, U$10 million of which were shorts. Selling pressure will continue though the stock price may recover a bit during the day. Its is still the most expensive stock on SET. 

• AOT – Will you travel to Ubon Thani, Krabi, or Buriram because now AOT operates the three provincial airports?  AOT has decided to take over these aiports management to drive tourism growth. Really? Foreigners have been BUYing AOT has a recovery theme past 4 days. It has 17 (wow) BUYs, 6 Holds, and 4 Sells (outdated?). It has very low 30-day volatility of 26, and non-threatening RSI of 54. 

• OR – Talking up expansion via EVs, upgraded gas stations to community malls to reduce operating costs, pushing margins beyond 20%. It has cut plan to add more stations in 2H and wishes to focus on non-retail business. If you believe, as we do, the buying will continue, add this stock to your port, on a 6–8-week view. UOB, DBS, CS, Asia Plus, and KSS have a SELL with TP between 23–25 baht. BLS, Finansa are most bullish with TP of above 35 baht a share.

• CPN – Aims to launch 1 low-rise project value 1.85 billion baht. Not known for residential properties, and Bt1.85bn is just 6% of an annual sales number…not so impactful. When will the customers return to its malls? Brokers slashed its earnings recently, and perhaps will do more after 3Q results. 

• WHA – Slashes investments/capex. This is expected move. 

• THANI – Expects 4Q21 to recover as loan demand returns and NPL remain low at 4%. Brokers forecast a 6% (just) decline in earnings this year. This is one the cheapest finance co. 

Brokers’ Picks

• TQM – A 24% fall not justified, easy lending biz starts next quarter
• KBANK – Best bank in the sector
• PTTEP – Rising oil price, share price is trading 1 standard deviation below mean
• SCGP – Reduced to HOLD from BUY by Krungsri Securities 

Short Sales Data

Note short sale in DETLA has just begun. This month 7.5% of turnover is short sale, this is not significant, but it can rise sharply, and quickly.