‘Movers & Shakers’ on the SET for September 21

Politics and Economy

Biggest news on the economic front is increase of government debt ceiling to 70% of GDP. Thailand’s current debt to GDP is at 58%. Increasing government borrowing to meet pandemic costs right thing to do, especially now when debt is so cheap. There are many countries with larger ratios:

Thailand           $262bn             47%      12.1%

Singapore         $342bn,            92.7%   7.5%

United States    $15.99trn         93.6%   9.9%

India                 $1.56trn           54.2%   13.4%

Indonesia         $308bn             26.0%   9.6%

Analysts are not very optimistic on recovery, and expect “arrival of good days” only in 2023

Government is prepping up inject Bt400bn, more than planned earlier, into the economy in 4Q via various subsidies to boost travel and consumption. It will be handed over, perhaps, subsidies on food, hotels, and purchase of electronics goods. 

Stocks In Play 

Region is trading down as fears that failure of Evergrande of China could start a contagion. Unlike in many countries, Evergrande is likely to collapse without any support. Hong Kong’s HSI index fell sharply last week first on change of regulations for Macau casinos, yesterday on Evergrande. The Hong Kong developers are trading at 5 year low.  This contagion caused sell down in the region and may do more damage to SET today. 

PSL

TTA 

CPF 

Shipping stock fell despite steady Baltic Freight Index remaining unchanged. Fears that falling iron price and buildup of soybean inventory in both the US and China will slow the trading volume. Brazil is the largest exports of Soybeans to the US and China. Soybean price are falling ahead of the harvest season. 

Soybean futures

TQR – In the news again to share that it will start focusing on selling cybercity insurance policies. Despite strong earnings, and lot of investors relation type PR, the share price is stuck in the trading range. This could be due to fears that that its shareholders, who have sold small holdings three times in last 2 years, each time at a higher price than previous sale, may sell some more. In addition, the Covid insurance driven boom is over given the insurance companies are not keen to offer this product anymore due to significant claims. A person can secure Bt100,000 Covid insurance payout for premium of just Bt800.

XPG

SIRI

Both have teamed up set up a JV named SIIRHUB. Intention to set it up was disclosed 2 months ago. SIRIHUB will launch digital tokens (not Bitcoin trading) – Thailand’s first real estate backed tokens under SEC regulation. Tokens total value of Bt2.4bn and priced at Bt10 will be issued in 2 tranches and will be trade on ERX Co. Digital exchange. Now, what is Digital exchange? We will revert soon. 

SCGP – Will invest Bt11.8bn to develop a paper packaging factory in northern Vietnam – to start operations by 2024. Don’t get too excited with long term investment. Krunsgsri downgraded the stock to SELL citing slowing profit growth in 2H. Investors seems to be following him, ignoring buy rating of many global and regional brokers. SCGP share price is down 6% in a week, most amongst the similar companies in the region. 

Most Traded and UP and Down Data

KBANK, and PTT topped the list as local funds sold massive Bt4.4bn. Many index stocks fell, while KCE and HANA held up. RBF became the retail favorite after TU acquired 10% stake in the company citing an old vendor-buyer relationship. We think new investment is to develop hemp product. 

SCGP continues to fall on poor 3Q profit fears. TTA, and BANPU saw profit taking. TTA and PSL are in the topmost down list, and so is SIRI and ORIGIN.

Trading Flows

Single day selling by local funds, though the most in this year, was significant at Bt4.4bn.

Insert trading flow by investor table here

Short Sales and NVDR – Foreigners are selling

PTT remains the top shorted stock for days. This implies investors expect SET to correct. Note DELTA could fall from here, at least that is what investors shorting the stock expect. You can short it buy buying a Put option offered by a few brokers. 

Not much clue of foreign mood from data below. Note the build up in KCE 2 days ago.  

FOREIGN TRADING OF NVDR
Stock20-Sep-2119-Sep-2118-Sep-2117-Sep-2116-Sep-2113-Sep-21
 Siam Cement Pcl -343.6365.766.42.1-59.5-44.4
 Ptt Global Chem -186.3-121.7473.6143.967.576.6
 Thai Union Group -160.748.38.7-107.926.6-133.2
 Delta Elec Thai -153.0-222.4-436.6-402.1-512.6-296.3
 Ptt Expl & Prod -110.9-86.5-168.7-145.3358.2-88.1
 Jmt Network Serv -104.038.611.429.2-234.0111.1
       
 Siam Comm Bk Pcl 133.3-241.072.135.2-86.9112.5
 Thai Oil Pcl 195.9-100.5-57.0-68.1102.914.7
 Gulf Energy De 250.0-80.765.1153.8129.870.7
 Kce Electronics 250.61,332.2-215.212.3-88.7-218.0
 Banpu Pub Co Ltd 258.6122.399.0-45.3-53.129.7
 Indorama Venture 259.716.2122.0104.9172.3165.3
 Foreign Net Flow -277.4-889.41,372.8-667.1350.9515.1

Brokers Picks

TQM – New segment, personal lending, and cybersecurity insurance ups profit outlook. TP Bt154

ILM – Bottom fishing play

BDMS – Reopening of borders by November to open flood gates of international patients 

BANPU – Attractive valuation at 8x PER, rising coal and gas prices, new investments – street high TP of B20, upped from Bt16 (Thanachart, analyst is 1 on return ranking) 

Stock Price Info

Stock Fundamental

Peer Comparison

Stock Price Chart

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