Should you bet on a “re-opening basket” in Thailand’s stock market?

Thailand’s premier has re-opened borders to visitors from five selected countries who, in the government’s opinion if not his own, are safe to enter Thailand without quarantine if they are fully vaccinated.

In our daily Movers and Shakers column, we flagged that it may not be wise to open up the borders too soon without proper homework. The homework refers to rate of vaccination, which is far below any readiness level by any standard, and medical facilities to handle a increase in infection rates.

Three previous waves have spread from gathering of people at a boxing stadium, factories with workers in proximity, night clubs, and wet markets. Though Thailand blamed foreigners for importing the virus, hence the travel ban, bulk of infection spread has originated from local markets and not from the places where foreigners visit.

As highlighted in the Movers and Shakers column, to put China and Singapore on the list of quarantine-free arrivals seems short-sighted. These two countries have mandatory quarantine requirement on return which will deter residents from these two countries from visiting Thailand. Travelers from the US, UK and Germany are likely to be few due to long-haul flights. Past data shows that a long-haul travel requires long planning.

Thailand would have been better off selecting India for quarantine-free travel to see instant success. India is about to resume international flights in mid-November. A quarantine-free travel for vaccinated travel would kick start Thailand’s tourism. India is only 3.5 flight hours from Bangkok.

A sales note from the Krungsri Securities says that despite strong recommendations by many brokers to buy a re-opening basket, it is not wise to invest in these momentum stocks for more than a week. Most of the recovery basket companies are forecast to remain in the red until next year. Furthermore, it is too early to assume the government plan to lure travelers is sure to be a success.

Reopening basket stocks – various brokers

AOT, AAV, BA, BTS, BEM

CENTEL, MINT, ERW, SHR, SPA, ERW

CPN, MBK, M, AU, BEAUTY, TKN

MAJOR, PLANB, VGI, BEC

CPALL, BJC, HMPRO, GLOBAL, CRC, SPVI, DOHOME, MAKRO

AMATA, ROJNA, WHA

BH, BDMS, BCH, THG

ADVANC, TRUE, DTAC

The following tables from the Krungsiri show performance of select stocks during the first and second weeks of the lifting of lockdown in May 2020, and February 2021.

Source : KSS

The table below shows the best and worst performers of the SET100 stocks during the same period, and today.

Source: KSS

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Stock Fundamental

Peer Comparison

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