Movers and Shakers on the SET for November 12

What is the News

  • Changes in the MSCI rebalance for global small cap index 
    IN – BEC, TIPH and TIDLOR       OUT – TKN
  • Thailand GDP may have contracted 1.6% YoY in 3Q, Bloomberg survey says. Due to be released on 15 Nov
  • Public is outraged with the constitutional court’s ruling that seeking a change in les majeste laws amounts to overthrowing the monarchy. The court’s website is hacked to superimpose words like “kangaroo court”
  • Move Forward party, 2nd largest by MP seats, faces danger of dissolution by court order for supporting student movement seeking change  in monarchy laws
  • Oil price corrected a bit after the US president may intervene to reduce price to tame US inflation
  • BOT confirms that banks can pay 50% of profits as dividends
  • Central Group admits it is looking to buy London’s Selfridges department stores
  • PM is considering further easing Covid restrictions for in bound trave. So far only less than 30k travelers have arrived since easing of Q-rules this month
  • MRTA readies for bidding for existing line extension – exciting for constructors and BTS
  • Alibaba reported record sales of $84.5bn on Singles Day shopping festival which ends 11/11. Last year, America’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales  were less than half single’s day sales
  • New daily covid cases fell to 7,305 from 7,496 yesterday

Market Wrap

On 11-Nov SET Index gained 1.97 points (0.12%) to close at 1632.44, taking last 5 day  gain to 0.38%.  

Investors raised SVI share price to its limit of 30% after a bumper 3Q profit. COM7 also rose to be most traded stock after its 3Q profit exceeded the street estimate.

SET Index is at 50d moving average – a critical level to guesstimate near term direction

Yesterday, total turnover  fell -6.49% to Bt63.5bn – following are top 10 names, 5 movers and 5 shakers,  that created the most market impact.

Movers

DELTA↑ Bt402(+5) 1.3%, 1MΔ  -12.9% B/S/H: 0/1/11 TP Bt364.1

Price keeps rising on hopes of improving prospects as the components shortage may ease

OR↓ Bt27( 0) 0%, 1MΔ  -5.3% B/S/H: 11/5/6 TP Bt29

Recovery from an oversold level

BDMS↓ Bt24.5( 0) 0%, 1MΔ +7.9% B/S/H: 24/3/0 TP Bt26.4

3Q net positively surprised the street

COM7↓ Bt75.25( 0) 0%, 1MΔ +4.9% B/S/H: 10/0/0 TP Bt82.7

3Q net beats street estimate by 26% – it is unchanged QoQ but up 55% YoY. Analysts may upgrade ’21F

CPALL↑ Bt65.75(+0.5) 0.8%, 1MΔ +2% B/S/H: 18/5/1 TP Bt69.7

3Q net falls short 46% of street estimate – up 13% YoY due to low base but 36% QoQ. It was reported after the market close – likely to fall today

Shakers

PTT↑ Bt38.25(+0.3) 0.7%, 1MΔ  -5% B/S/H: 24/3/0 TP Bt48.5

3Q net to be released today – expected to rise 20% QoQ and up 107% YoY

AOT↑ Bt66.5(+0.3) 0.4%, 1MΔ  -2.2% B/S/H: 17/5/5 TP Bt68.9

3Q net to be released today – expected to rise 20% QoQ and up 107% YoY

IVL↓ Bt41.5( 0) 0%, 1MΔ  -7.3% B/S/H: 19/2/0 TP Bt54.2

Share price of petrochemical stocks falling on concerns of peaking spreads

MAKRO↑ Bt48.75(+0.3) 0.5%, 1MΔ  -4.9% B/S/H: 3/6/3 TP Bt48.8

3Q net to be released today – expected to rise 20% QoQ and up 107% YoY

PTTGC↓ Bt61.5( 0) 0%, 1MΔ  -5% B/S/H: 20/7/0 TP Bt74.3

3Q net fell 72% QoQ on planned shut down and weak refinery and petrochemical spreads

Most Traded

COM7↓ Bt75( -0.3) -0.3%, 1MΔ +4.9% B/S/H: 10/0/0 TP Bt82.7

3Q net beats street estimate by 26% – it is unchanged QoQ but up 55% YoY. Analysts may upgrade ’21F

KBANK↓ Bt149( 0) 0%, 1MΔ +6% B/S/H: 21/2/2 TP Bt159.7

KBANK is a usual feature in the top most traded list

KCE↑ Bt92.75(+1.8) 1.9%, 1MΔ +17.8% B/S/H: 12/1/1 TP Bt103.3

Excitement over strong 3Q, and hopes of better 4Q continue

BDMS↓ Bt24.5( 0) 0%, 1MΔ +7.9% B/S/H: 24/3/0 TP Bt26.4

3Q net beats street estimate, 4Q to be even better.

Newsworthy stock

CPALL↑ Bt65.25(+0.5) 0.8%, 1MΔ +2% B/S/H: 18/5/1 TP Bt69.7

3Q net falls short 46% of street estimate – up 13% YoY due to low base but 36% QoQ. It was reported after the market close – likely to fall today

PTT↓ Bt38( -0.5) -1.3%, 1MΔ  -5% B/S/H: 24/3/0 TP Bt48.5

3Q net to be released today – expected to rise 20% QoQ and up 107% YoY

LH↓ Bt8.6( 0) 0%, 1MΔ +6.8% B/S/H: 21/2/0 TP Bt9.6

3Q net in line – hit by worker camp closures – possible forecast cuts for this year

JMART↑ Bt45(+1.3) 2.9%, 1MΔ +12.5% B/S/H: 3/0/0 TP Bt47

At lifetime high price driven by strong performance of its subsidiaries – JMT and SINGER

TIDLOR↑ Bt36(+0.3) 0.7%, 1MΔ +2.1% B/S/H: 12/4/1 TP Bt46

Added to MSCI Global Small cap Index starting Nov 30. It may be added to SET100 Index starting 1 Jan 21

OSP↑ Bt34.25(+1.3) 3.8%, 1MΔ  0% B/S/H: 16/4/1 TP Bt39.8

Is optimistic of double digit revenue growth in ’22F, plans to launch CBD laced drinks in 2Q22

RS↑ Bt18.9(+0.9) 5%, 1MΔ +2.2% B/S/H: 4/5/0 TP Bt21.6

After reporting a disastrous 3Q net, it says revenue growth in ’22F would be outstanding as it stars selling new products including hemp products

Brokers Picks

GFPT↓ Bt11.7( -0.1) -0.8%, -7.1% in 3M  MCap Bt14.8bn PER: 43.4x  P/B: 1x TP Bt13.3

A loss in 3Q due to historic low gross margin led us to cut ’21F net by 64%. 4Q will show a recovery. Trading BUY with TP of Bt14.5 (BLS)

PSL↑ Bt16.7(+0.2) 1.2%, -28.3% in 3M  MCap Bt25.7bn PER: 6.8x  P/B: 1.9x TP Bt23.8

Strong 3Q profit. Charter rates to soften in 4Q21-1Q22 due to disuptions in China, but will recover strongly later as demand supply imbalance hard to rectify. Buy with TP of Bt18.6 (KELIVE)

CENTEL↑ Bt36.75(+0.3) 0.7%, 25.9% in 3M  MCap Bt49.3bn PER: 0x  P/B: 2.6x TP Bt37

Upgrading to HOLD after raising TP to Bt36. It will remain in red in ’21 and ’22 but rising occupancy reduces the cash bleed (KSS)

COM7↓ Bt75( -0.3) -0.3%, 19% in 3M  MCap Bt90.3bn PER: 42.1x  P/B: 23.8x TP Bt82.7

3Q net profit -3%QoQ,+53%YoY is  better 14%/42% our/market estimate. 4Q outlook is better. Buy with TP of Bt82 (KELIVE)

STARK↑ Bt4.7(+0.1) 3.1%, 5.6% in 3M  MCap Bt54.3bn PER: 38x  P/B: 11.5x TP Bt5.2

Bumper profit in 3Q as 9M net is now 108% of our ’21F net. Reiterate BUY while we raise our forecast and TP (TNS)

KEX↓ Bt36.75( -1.3) -3.3%, -4.4% in 3M  MCap Bt66.1bn PER: 55.2x  P/B: 6x TP Bt40.5

Poor 3Q from increased cost leads us to cut forecast for ’21/’22F by 46% and 13%. Though this means ’22F will rise by 56% YoY, valuation remains demanding. Downgrade to HOLD (KGI

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