Headline inflation rises for third month in a row

The consumer price index (CPI), an indicator of headline inflation, jumped for a third consecutive month in November, due to the rising price of fuel and commodities, the Ministry of Commerce said Friday. 

One of the factors pushing the headline inflation up is the low base levels last year, said Ronnarong Phoolpipat, the Director-General at the Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

The headline inflation in November rose by 2.71 per cent year-on-year, marking the third straight month of rise since September. 

Fuel prices surged following the global recovery trends as Covid-19 situation improved, while vegetable prices were still on the rise as a result of previous floods, Ronnarong told a briefing.

The average headline inflation for the first eleven months of 2021 stood at 1.15 per cent, with a forecast for the whole year in a range of 0.8 to 1.2 per cent. 

Ronnarong noted that the inflation will likely rise further in the next year at the projection of 0.7 to 2.4 per cent, driven by recovery of the Thai economy which is expected to see up to 4.5-per-cent growth in 2022. 

However, the emergence of  the Omicron variant is now disturbing the global economic prospects, as the world has yet to know it thoroughly. 

“We will monitor closely on the situation of the new variant,” Ronnarong said, adding that it may be the key indicator of the inflation trend in the future. 

Excluding fresh food and energy prices, core CPI in November rose by 0.29 per cent, yielding a 11-month average of 0.23 per cent. 

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