The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) predicted on Wednesday that the outbreak of the Omicron variant will be under control by the first quarter of 2022.
The group retains its 2022 economic growth outlook at 3.5-4.5 per cent, with exports rising by 3-5. per cent and 1.2-2 per cent for inflation, unchanged from its last meeting in December.
“We are confident that the country’s public health system is prepared,” Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, one of the JSCCIB’s three members, told a virtual briefing.
“The Omicron variant is unlikely to have a significant impact and trigger a lockdown,” he noted.
However, the Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), a research unit of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), has cut its 2022 economic growth outlook from 3.4 to 3.2 per cent, citing a decline in foreign arrivals due to travel restrictions.
Thailand is now suspending registration for its one-night quarantine programme, Test and Go, until further notice.
“The number of foreign tourists is expected to fall short of the previous forecast,” EIC analysts said. The research house revised down 2022 foreign arrival from 7.7 to 5.9 million, given the impact from the Omicron variant.
Under the worst-case scenario where the pandemic is worsening, EIC predicts only 2.6 arrivals to the country. Thailand once recorded almost 40 million visitors prior to the pandemic.
Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, governor of the Bank of Thailand, expects the Omicron variant to be under control by the first half of 2022. He added that the bank is ready to implement more steps if needed.