Thai exports could be impacted from Russia-Ukraine conflict in coming months, analysts warn

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Thailand’s exports will likely be impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine from March, after February’s figures show no signs of decline in export value, analysts said on Friday.

As Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, the Commerce Ministry reported a 16-percent uptick in exports of the month from a year earlier, marking the 12 month of growth in a row.

Poonyawat Sreesing, a senior economist at the SCB Economic Intelligence Center (SCBEIC), expects that the Russia-Ukraine crisis will have an impact on Thai exports in March and April, “particularly exports to Europe.”

However, the impact might not be significant, Poonyawat noted. He cited South Korea’s exports statistics for the first 20 days of March, which is still on an upward trend.

Source: SCBEIC

EIC forecasts that Thai exports in 2022 might expand more than previously estimated thanks to a hike in commodity prices in the wake of Western sanctions against Russia.

“Despite the impacts of the war on the global economy, commodity prices such as oil, natural gas, metals, and agricultural products tend to rise sharply this year,” said Poonyawat.

In addition, the resumption of diplomatic ties between Thailand and Saudi Arabia will enhance Thai chicken exports to Saudi Arabia, Poonyawat noted.

“Thailand also has an opportunity to penetrate the food, automotive, and other industries in the next phase of discussion,” he added.

The research house said that it will release a full report on Thailand’s exports outlook including the economic projection later this month.

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