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Thailand’s political landscape is changing in ways not seen in decades as smaller political parties look to merge to keep themselves relevant in an era where the name of the game is to be in big party or become irrelevant.
The changes to the electoral law that reverts the initial plans of having 150 Member of Parliament who would be represented in the party-list to just 100 and the remaining 400 are in the constituency MP category.
The calculation methodology also has seen changes that makes it very difficult, if not impossible for the so called ‘patt sett” or MPs who were put in position by the magical calculation methodology used in the 2019 election, that put in MPs with a mere handful of votes that in the new electoral system would mean that such MPs would never make it to the parliament.
The initial euphoria of possible electoral system that would benefit the smaller parties prompted many political leaders to start to think about entering politics hoping that they would be able to gain the 35,000 to 40,000 votes to make it at least 1 MP in the parliament.
That initial euphoria has turned into a nightmare for the parties that were formed after the electoral system was changed to benefit the larger parties, thus leaving the many parties that were hoping to benefit to scramble for their place in political arena in Thailand.
First Mover Advantage
Kla Party, formed by former finance minister under the Abhisit Vejjajiva government – Korn Chatikavanij, took the lead to announce in early September that that it was looking to merge with Chart Pattana Party and yesterday a formal meeting of the newly formed Chart Pattana Kla party held its meeting to elect Korn as the party leader.
The newly formed merger of the parties which continues to have Chart Pattana branding more than Kla gave in to the former investment banker and head of one of Thailand’s leading brokerage Korn the leadership role while ceding to put Tewan Liptapanlop, the so called bankroller of the party, to the Secretary General’s position.
Korn, who had in his banking career undertaken many mergers & acquisitions including merging his own firm that he had set up Jardine Fleming Thanakhom (JF Thanakom) with JP Morgan’s operations in Thailand, looked set to take the lead in cherry picking the best fit for his party and a party that has a lot of cash to burn.
The fact that Korn was able to take the lead in picking Chart Pattana party gives him an advantage on many fronts including an appeal in the home turf of Chart Pattana – Nakron Ratchisma province or the northeast of Thailand.
Korn’s Kla party had the appeal in Bangkok and some in the south of Thailand but was lacking the exposure to the northeast and a merger with Chart Pattana party gave him that advantage. Kla also had the economic team that Chart Pattana was lacking, not to mention a charismatic leader to push through its goal of being able to attract more voter base.
The northeast is the area that defines the direction of the politics in Thailand and is the battleground for many parties with Pheu Thai as the leader among the pack.
The northeast is the battle ground for all parties including Bhumjai Thai, Phalang Pracharat and the to some extent the Democrat party. The Pheu Thai which continues to have a stronghold of the northeast region continues to defend its turf but as more parties are vying for the piece of the northeast pie, the party may have to come up with some magical formula to grab the entire region to itself.
Scrambling for Partners
While Chart Pattana Kla has managed to get itself a so called ‘perfect partner’ other parties that were formed are still in a limbo on where they are yet to go.
Former leader of the Pheu Thai party – Sudarat Keyuraphan, went to form Thai Saang Thai party (Thais build Thai is the literal translation of the name) on March 23, 2021, in hopes of being able to take on the big parties with the 150 Party List MPs and the ‘magical calculation’ of the electoral votes, similar to those seen in 2019 elections.
But as things have turned out the stern and relatively stubborn Sudarat has come to realize that her appeal may not be as strong as she anticipated and with the calculation methodology skewed to benefit the larger parties, she is already looking at possible merger partners.
One partner that is reportedly in the news reports to join up with Thai Saang Thai is ‘Saang Anakhot Thai’ party or building the future of Thailand (literal translation of the name).
Saang Anakhot Thai party, which according to the Election Commission of Thailand, was formed on August 31, 2018, as Phalang Thai Naam Thai party, is another party that has been scrambling to find its place in the Thai political arena.
Saang Anakhot Thai party which nominated former Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana, as the party leader in April this year also went ahead to announce in September this year that it had made former Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, as its ‘chairman’ after Somkid applied to be a party membership.
Talks of a possible merger between Sudarat’s Thai Saang Thai and Somkid’s Saang Anakhot Thai has been making its rounds over the past couple of weeks but that move looks more difficult than one can think of.
Strange Bedfellows
Sudarat’s Thai Saang Thai and Somkid’s Saang Anakhot Thai can be termed as ‘strange bedfellows’ because both the leaders of the parties are power and fame hungry.
Sudarat’s management style in Pheu Thai party was one of the key reasons why she was ‘sidelined’ in the party until she ‘resigned’ and tried to take away many MPs from Pheu Thai to her fold. Pheu Thai did not sack the constituency MPs because by law if they were sacked, they could join a new party immediately without contesting a by-election, but if they resigned then they would need to contest a by-election and also pay a fine to the Election Commission for resigning.
This move by Pheu Thai was an impediment to Sudarat’s plans and to make things worse, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter was put in Pheu Thai as the ‘family head’, a position given by the party to help the party avoid having exodus of MPs to other parties.
The sending of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as the head of Pheu Thai family prompted many MPs looing to leave to rethink and stuck with the party, a move they may be thanking their stars for as most of the smaller parties are now scrambling for survival.
Somkid’s Saang Anakhot Thai meanwhile has some of the ministers who during their term as ministers were criticized for not helping revive the economy. Somkid was the Deputy Prime Minister from August 2015 until July 2020, a time when the economy could have been roaring but instead Thailand’s economy remained in fragile position up until the outbreak of Covid-19 in Q1 2020.
He was always in the news while in-charge of the ‘economy’ as a Deputy Prime Minister unser the 2014 coup leader – Prayut Chan-o-cha’s government.
Somkid is a person who likes the limelight and so does Sudarat, and that is where the problem is arising for the possible merger as neither of the 2 are willing to give up control to lead the merged entity.
Sudarat reportedly wants to be the merged party leader as she claims to have ‘better network’ and ‘more political experience’ while Somkid feels that he’s the economic policy czar and therefore he needs to lead the merged entity.
The talks of a merger is already on the brink of collapse as Sudarat continues to insist on her being the lead candidate for Prime Minister from the merged party and also be the top candidate in the party list of the merged entity.
A clash of personalities at the top is not likely to yield a long-lasting marriage, even if the marriage does happen.
Also Ran
Then there is the gang of many political parties that are likely to be left behind with no trail as the new electoral system may wipe them out completely.
According to the list of parties released by the Election Commission, there were as many as 84 political parties registered in Thailand as of end of 2021.
With only 4 considered to be among the top tier (Pheu Thai, Phalang Pracharat, Bhumjai Thai and Democrat), the likelihood of many of the remaining 80 parties will have to find some kind of solution to remain relevant in an age where size matters have become the mantra for success in Thai political arena.
Many of the smaller parties be it the likes of Action Coalition for Thailand (ACT) that was formed by the 2013/2014 street protest leader – Suthep Thaugsuban, or the likes of the outspoken and sometimes with and sometimes against Prayut government – Mongkolkit Suksintharanon, and his Thai Civilized party, are all likely to suffer.
Even the likes of maverick politicians such as the convicted Australian drug dealer – Thammanat Prompao, and his New Sethakij party (new economic party), are scrambling to find partners to merge with their 13 sitting MPs that he split out after breaking away from the Phalang Pracharath party.
The likes of Thai Pakdee party’s Warong Dechgitvigrom, and Ruam Thai United parties are all likely to look for ways to make their presence felt as realities on the political front starts to shape in ways they had never anticipated.