Thailand’s political landscape is currently in a state of flux, with potential alliances, election predictions, and switching allegiances dominating the discourse. However, with the election just a week away, a persistent rumor has been making its way around political circles.
According to numerous sources both inside the current opposition parties (Pheu Thai, Move Forward) and inside the current governing coalition, Thailand’s conservative establishment is slowly building a case to dissolve both PT and MFP.
It appears that the progressive agenda of the Move Forward Party is seen as a threat to the existing orthodoxy, and its plans to address the lese majeste law (as well as other party policies like directly-elected governors) are unacceptable to the conservative forces inside the courts and the establishment. This threat has seemingly doubled in recent weeks with MFP polling beyond expectations and drawing huge crowds at rallies around the country.
Sources say that the case against MFP is more clear cut than the one against Pheu Thai, who have been more willing to play ball with the establishment elite behind the scenes. However, the prospect of a return to the country for exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has irked more than a few conservative voices who have spent the last two decades trying to erase his legacy.
The case against Pheu Thai will hinge on whether or not the establishment can prove that an outside hand was influencing and funding the party. Should that be proven, the party could risk dissolution.
Insiders within both the Palang Pracharath Party and the United Thai Nation Party have said that a war chest is already being prepared should one or both MFP and PT get dissolved. The war chest will be used to persuade MPs from either party to join the PPRP and United Thai cause.
It is unclear whether the threat of dissolution will cause a shift in the way PT and MFP will pick their allies and what their strategy will be should the eventuality of a dissolution occur. PT party members say they have already registered a backup party, while the MFP has strategically placed key members outside the executive council in the case of a political ban on execs.
It is clear that should one or both parties get dissolved, massive street protests will likely occur. The student protests that grew during Covid were started because of the dissolution of the Future Forward Party. The protesters called for the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his administration, accusing them of suppressing freedom of speech and violating human rights.
The demonstrations grew in size and intensity, with thousands of protesters taking to the streets in Bangkok and other major cities in Thailand. The protesters used various tactics, including sit-ins, marches, and flash mobs, to draw attention to their demands. They also used social media platforms, such as Twitter and Facebook, to organize and share their message.
If another dissolution occurs, one can expect protests to be even larger in scale.