During the first meeting of parliament, only one contested vote took place. Wan Muhammad Noor Matha, the leader of the Prachachart Party, was nominated as speaker of the House of Representatives unopposed; Pheu Thai got its pick for the second deputy speakership similarly without incident.
Only Move Forward’s choice for the first deputy speakership, Padipat Suntiphada, faced opposition when the United Thai Nation Party forced a division by nominating a competitor. It was the first time that the coalition Move Forward had assembled was to face a parliamentary test, and by the looks of it they passed with flying colors. Despite the use of a secret ballot, Padipat received 312 votes — revealing that the coalition had remained totally unified. The cobras — Thai parlance for those who defy the party line — have yet to rear their heads.
But the smooth first day in parliament belies the far deeper tensions that preceded it. For weeks, Move Forward and Pheu Thai had been engaged in interminable negotiations over who would become the speaker. The battle had been unseemly, to say the least.
Move Forward had insisted that it needed the speakership in order to facilitate passage of its legislation — the supposed impartiality of the speaker be damned — while Pheu Thai had stuck to its demand that, having conceded leadership of the executive branch to Move Forward, the party should have the good sense to provide the presidency of the legislative branch. Pheu Thai’s figures were certainly not speaking from the same script, one person at one moment saying the biggest vote winner should be allowed their speaker, another person then saying that the role was for Pheu Thai alone.
Despite the various cabinet formulas that were proposed — Pheu Thai wanted Move Forward to adhere to a “14+1” recipe, whereby both parties would get 14 cabinet seats, and Move Forward additionally gets the premiership while Pheu Thai gets the speakership — the result was a strange compromise. Fourteen plus zero, it turned out to be; the Prachachart Party, with 9 seats in parliament, would get to run the legislative branch. It is a compromise without precedent in modern Thai history. Even when the Democrats successfully sought the speakership for Chuan Leekpai in 2019, the party still had fifty seats.
Yet it is a compromise only on paper. Substantively, a Wan Muhammad Noor Matha speakership cannot be seen as anything but a defeat for Move Forward. Wan Noor is no stranger to the role, having already served once during the 1990s under the New Aspiration banner. But he is also no stranger to Pheu Thai; he was previously a member of the party and served in the Thaksin cabinet. An ex-Pheu Thai MP as speaker as a substitute for a sitting Pheu Thai MP is no bad deal for the party.
More substantively, however, if Move Forward had desired the speakership so that it would have an easier time with its legislative program, Wan Noor probably represents an even less desirable outcome for the party than the average Pheu Thai MP. As the leader of Prachachart, which counts Thailand’s Muslim-majority Deep South as its core base, Wan Noor has been clear that he does not approve of core chunks of the Move Forward policy program, particularly marriage equality and the party’s ‘progressive liquor’ bill. He has also been careful to emphasize that amendment of Section 112 (the lèse-majesté law), another priority for Move Forward, is not in the coalition’s MOU agreement.
Would the speaker have decisive sway over what legislation passes the House of Representatives? They could, if they choose to exercise that power. In the previous parliament, Move Forward’s proposal to amend Section 112 was blocked from being put to a vote on the floor. It was reported that Speaker Chuan Leekpai had blocked it, but Chuan himself said that the legislation never reached him as the deputy speaker, Suchart Tancharoen (now a member of Pheu Thai) had agreed with the parliamentary legal staff’s assessment that the Move Forward bill was unconstitutional. Whether or not Wan Noor would allow Move Forward’s deputy speaker similarly powers remains to be seen.
Regardless of how the speaker performs his role, Pheu Thai’s demonstrated appetite for bargaining with Move Forward will make life hard for a potential Prime Minister Pita Limjaroenrat in any case. It does not help Move Forward that Pheu Thai holds all the cards in any negotiation; Move Forward needs Pheu Thai, after all, but the reverse is not true. The protracted battle over the speakership has already set a sour mood to the start of an unnatural partnership.
And the question, of course, remains: will this partnership endure? The vote for Move Forward’s deputy speaker had demonstrated coalition unity, but one would have hardly expected anyone to rock the boat for a deputy speakership. The selection of the prime minister is next to come. That will be a true test of whether or not supposed friends will stick together even when times get tough.