The chances were never high, but Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat has failed to win the first ballot of MPs and senators.
With one senator having resigned, Pita needed to garner a constitutional minimum of 375 votes across the two houses.
He garnered 324 votes, with 311 MPs and 13 senators voting for him. 188 MPs and 193 senators voted against him or abstained.
Pita needed 375 votes to win.
This is an explainer on why Pita did not become prime minister, and what may come next.
Why didn’t Pita become prime minister?
The parliamentary debate today on Pita’s candidacy was centered around the Move Forward Party’s proposal to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code, also known as the lèse-majesté law.
MPs from the major non-coalition parties, such as Bhumjaithai and the United Thai Nation Party, were very clear that Pita’s desire to amend this law was a key reason why they could not support his candidacy.
Bhumjaithai MP Chada Thaisreth went so far as to say that if only Pita dropped amendment of Section 112 from his party’s platfor, Bhumjaithai would agree to vote in favor of him.
Multiple MPs and senators argued that the parties that do not favor amendment of 112 received 25 million votes, more than the MFP had gained.
The issue of Pita’s potential suspension by the Constitutional Court was also brought up as an issue.
senator Praphan Khunmee noted that Pita is clearly not qualified legally to serve as MP, although even if this were to be ruled to be true by the Constitutional Court, this would not technically impact Pita’s candidacy for prime minister.
Although the Move Forward-led coalition remained unified behind Pita, it was not enough to get him across the line.
Even though there was no other candidate nominated for prime minister, the constitution requires a nominated candidate to receive a majority of the vote across both houses — 375 votes with the absence of one senator — in order to be appointed to office.
Despite having no competitor and majority support in the lower house, Pita could not automatically become prime minister.
The issue with Pita losing this vote is not simply that he lost, but the manner in which he lost.
Move Forward had projected a sunny optimism about the vote, and key members of the party had claimed that they had all the necessary Senate votes locked down. They had needed over 60 Senate votes for Pita to win.
However, by winning only 13 senators, the coalition has now received a clear indication that the route to victory may simply be too distant to bridge.
So who will be the next prime minister?
What will happen next remains unclear, but there are a number of possible scenarios.
Pita could be re-nominated for further rounds of voting. A deputy speaker from Pheu Thai has indicated that Pheu Thai would support Pita in three rounds of voting, and if his candidacy is still unsuccessful, the coalition would have to meet to decide on an alternative course of action.
Whether or not Pheu Thai will stick to this plan remains to be seen, but what is evident is that there is no appetite for unlimited rounds of voting.
Indeed, senators and MPs from other parties are also likely to object to re-voting on a candidate that they have already rejected.
Given the MFP’s strong stance on the issue, it also seems inconceivable that Pita would be willing to drop amendment of Section 112 from his policy platform in a bid to gain more votes.
Yet the fact that so few senators agreed to vote for him likely indicates that convincing over fifty more senators may well be an impossibility.
Pita might also be suspended as MP over the next few days by the Constitutional Court, which would complicate the Senate’s views of him further.
What seems most likely at this point, therefore, is that Pita Limjaroenrat will not be Thailand’s 30th prime minister.
Who, then, will be the most likely candidate? The eligible candidates are those whose parties have at least 25 MPs: the three candidates from Pheu Thai (Paethongtharn Shinawatra, Srettha Thavisin, Chaikasem Nitisiri), Bhumjaithai’s Anutin Charnvirakul, Palang Pracharath’s Prawit Wongsuwan, the United Thai Nation Party’s Prayut Chan-o-cha or Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, and the Democrats’ Jurin Laksanawisit.
We can start by ruling out the candidates who will not be prime minister: Prayut recently announced his retirement from politics, while Jurin has quit as head of the Democrats.
Pirapan has said the UTN has no interest in fielding a prime ministerial candidate.
This leaves the Pheu Thai candidates, along with Anutin and Prawit.
If the coalition sticks together, a Pheu Thai candidate could be nominated with MFP support; Srettha Thavisin may turn out to be the most palatable option to the Senate, given Chaikasem’s recent ill health (he was hospitalized in April) and Paethongtharn’s status as Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter.
But whether the Senate support a Pheu Thai prime minister beholden to the MFP? That remains an open question.
Pheu Thai does not have amending Section 112 in its legislative agenda, but some senators may argue that retaining MFP in the coalition indicates that this proposal has not been dropped entirely.
In that event, the only solution out of this parliamentary deadlock would be for a political crossover where the former government and opposition parties join hands together to nominate a candidate from Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, or Palang Pracharath.
Such a formula could perhaps even produce a prime minister from one of the former coalition parties, such as Prawit or Anutin — but that would require a lot of people in Pheu Thai to swallow their words about which parties they previously pledged not to ally with.
Whatever happens, Thai politics seems poised for tumultuous times. A government that is not led by Pita will almost certainly spark outrage from no small portion of Move Forward’s 14 million voters and be seen as a denial of the popular will.
Whether or not whatever new government is formed can manage such popular discontent will now be the question that minds turn to.