The Move Forward party’s decision to leave the 8-party coalition was a critical move for the pro-democracy parties to form a government, following the withdrawal of support from most other parties. Despite earning the backing of 312 members of parliament, equating to roughly 72% of the electorate in the May 14th elections, the 8-party coalition still faced significant obstacles. The 2016 constitution requires at least 375 votes from the combined parliament for a Prime Ministerial candidate.
The coalition’s candidate, Pita Limjaorenrat, fell short of the required support, securing only 324 votes. His fate was further sealed when the parliament voted against his re-nomination for Prime Minister. Despite a post-election anticipation of Senate votes, Move Forward only secured 13 of the necessary 63 votes.
Instead of convincing senators to support Pita, Move Forward focused on thanking voters, a strategy that was poorly received. This, along with their proposal to shake the key pillars of the Thai social structure, isolated them further from the country’s elites.
The party became a political enemy, reminiscent of the Thai Rak Thai, People’s Power party, and Pheu Thai party experiences. The party’s failure to form a coalition, despite attempts by the 8-parties to nominate Pita for Prime Minister, was due to this unfavorable position.
Pita’s insistence on being called the ‘Prime Minister Designate’ and the party’s refusal to compromise on its pledges didn’t help their cause. Even when he couldn’t secure the necessary 375 votes, Pita vowed not to back down, a commendable but politically suicidal move.
As a result, it was virtually impossible to get the support needed for Pita to become Prime Minister. The announcement by Pheu Thai of a new coalition formation wasn’t surprising. If they didn’t seize the opportunity, it would likely go to the Bhumjai Thai party, the third largest party.
Handing over government formation to Bhumjai Thai could have enabled the 2014 coup leaders to seize power again. Pheu Thai had already been sidelined despite being the largest party, resulting in four years of opposition.
If this opportunity was missed, the pro-democracy side risked returning to old ways and allowing a potentially unfavorable coalition to rule for another four years. Given the past betrayals of Future Forward party MPs, there were no guarantees against a repeat.
Therefore, it was crucial to break this cycle and take the lead in forming a government. Despite appearing to back away from the democratic front, Pheu Thai has kept the unpopular Phalang Pracharat and Ruam Thai Saang Chart parties out of the coalition. Their move to form a coalition was necessary, and support from Move Forward to reduce Senate power could go a long way. Their plan to strip the 250 appointed senators of their voting rights for the Prime Minister candidate can only occur if they vote for Pheu Thai’s candidate.