Government’s plans to court China ignores economic realities; puts Thailand at geopolitical risk

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In economics and diplomacy, decisions can’t be made lightly—especially when they have far-reaching implications for a country’s economic and geopolitical stability. Yet, Thailand’s new government under Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin appears to be taking an ill-advised gamble by tying the nation’s economic future primarily to China. This strategic move is especially concerning given the precarious state of China’s economy and its increasingly ideological governance under Xi Jinping.

The litany of economic issues facing China is staggering: an unstable real estate sector, rampant youth unemployment, and an overall shaky economic foundation. Furthermore, Xi Jinping’s determination to roll back liberal economic reforms and instill a stronger communist ideology could make China an even more volatile partner for Thailand. Against this backdrop, Thailand’s courting of Chinese money seems not just misguided but perilously naïve, lacking in comprehensive economic analysis and macroeconomic understanding.

Srettha’s government plans to boost tourism by increasing direct flights to secondary cities in China and transforming local festivals like Loy Krathong and Songkran into global events, primarily targeting Chinese tourists. On paper, these initiatives might look promising for quick economic gains, but they fail to account for China’s economic vulnerabilities and what that could mean for Thailand.

A glaring oversight in this policy is how it places Thailand’s economy perilously at the mercy of Chinese political whims. Xi Jinping’s ideological pivot has already shown that economic partnerships can easily be sacrificed at the altar of political or ideological expediency. If the Chinese government decides that outbound tourism contradicts its economic or political objectives, Thailand could see a sudden and drastic reduction in tourist numbers, throwing its own economy into chaos.

The proposal to boost direct flights to China’s secondary cities is a particular point of concern. Without a thorough demand analysis in the context of China’s economic downturn, these routes may end up being unprofitable ventures. This speaks to a level of economic wishful thinking that is both dangerous and irresponsible.

Beyond economics, the cultural implications are equally worrisome. Transforming festivals like Loy Krathong and Songkran into commercial ventures aimed primarily at foreign tourists risks commodifying and diluting these rich cultural traditions. Culture is not just another product to be packaged and sold to the highest bidder; it’s an integral part of a nation’s identity.

The plan to engage with Chinese influencers and establish an online crisis management team to monitor negative posts by Chinese influencers is fraught with its own set of complexities. In a highly regulated and sensitive environment like China’s, Thailand could find itself compromising on freedom of expression or even adopting self-censorship to pander to Chinese interests.

Thailand’s ambitious goals—to increase foreign visitors to 28 million in 2023 and even aim for 40 million by 2024—while laudable, come with their own set of risks when largely anchored to China’s market. If China’s economy falters, it could lead to a significant downturn in Thailand’s tourism sector, putting countless jobs and livelihoods at risk.

In conclusion, while expanding tourism is a worthy goal, the strategy to disproportionately rely on China is fraught with peril. Both economic and geopolitical factors strongly suggest that Thailand should diversify its approach. The stakes are incredibly high, and the Thai government needs to reevaluate its position to ensure that it’s not sacrificing long-term stability for short-term gains. In international relations, as in economics, diversification is not just prudent—it’s essential. And Thailand’s economic and cultural future deserves nothing less than a well-thought-out, diversified strategy.


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