Thailand in 2023: Conservatism in Disarray

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When Prayut Chan-o-cha was prime minister, he penned at least ten singles. None, of course, was more famous than his debut with “Returning Happiness to the People,” a song that was endlessly played on the airwaves in the aftermath of the 2014 military coup. 

His other singles garnered relatively little attention. One of those relatively neglected songs was a piece called ‘Saphan’ (“Bridge”), which was apparently inspired by one of Prayut’s favorite songs, ‘Bridge Over Troubled Water’ by Simon & Garfunkel. “I’m ready to be a bridge,” the lyrics go, “so that you can cross over to the endpoint you dreamed of.” 

The endpoint that Prayut was thinking about probably did not quite align with what eventually ended up transpiring. The Prayut era was meant to be the fortification of one particular conservative vision of Thai politics: a new era where the unpredictable pressures of democracy could be guided and channeled towards predetermined paths. One where corrupt politicians could be permanently contained and prevented from ever taking the reins of power. 

The 2023 election results have led to a major rethink of these goals. Not that Thailand’s conservatives have never had to make concessions, the moral in partnership with the gray. The Democrats had always needed their political operatives, one that contrasted with the clean images of their leaders. No, that is par for the course in Thai politics. What we speak of here is different: the scale of the grand compromise that Thai conservatism has had to make this year was truly extraordinary.

The party that Prayut had played such a role in forming, the United Thai Nation Party, now sits in coalition with Pheu Thai, the very party in its successive incarnations that the military had twice overthrown. Thaksin Shinawatra, supposedly a mortal enemy, returned to Thailand even before Prayut’s premiership was terminated. Now he is comfortably ensconced on the 14th floor of the Police Hospital. 

To be sure, there was a necessity. With the Move Forward Party winning the election, the newly triangular dynamics of Thai politics — the conservatives in one camp, Thaksinites in another corner, and Move Forward’s progressives in yet another — logic dictated that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

It is no overstatement to say that Prayut ended up acting as the bridge to the death of one incarnation of Thai conservatism. Still politically viable in 2019, by 2023 he had long overstayed his sell-by date. Covid has been unkind to incumbents of all political stripes worldwide. But combined with all of his baggage, Prayut never gave Thai conservatives a fighting chance. At this critical juncture, where Thai progressivism had gained sufficient strength to actually prevail at the ballot box, the conservatives became so fatally weakened electorally that they had no choice but to make a deal with the devil. 

The Bhumjaithai Party will continue on as it has been: an influential party that draws its votes from both the local networks of its candidates and some flashy policies it chooses to adopt, sans any unifying ideology. The Palang Pracharath Party is difficult to separate from General Prawit Wongsuwan; once he chooses to retire, most observers think the party’s days will be numbered. What of the United Thai Nation Party, however? It looks like it wants to be in politics for the long haul. It is cultivating a new generation of younger politicians who are attractive and media-savvy. It had tried to distinguish itself clearly from the other parties during the election: a truly ideological project dedicated to its brand of conservatism.

Has the partnership with Pheu Thai dealt a death knell to this project, however? Perhaps it is too early to say. There is still a lot of room to navigate for a party that is now dedicated to opposing Move Forward’s brand of politics. But to suggest that such a party could emerge victorious at the ballot box — something a unified conservative party like the Democrats could not do in a decade — would be quite another thing altogether.

And speaking of the Democrats: 2023 also led to the end of another brand of Thai conservatism. After the election the Democrats had become a hollow shell of its former self, its former glory stripped away, leaderless and directionless, in search of a new identity. Chalermchai Sri-on’s eventual triumph in the party leadership race showed the fateful choice that Thailand’s only truly institutionalized party had made: to become a pragmatic regional party. The party could have tried to revive a more ideological identity, led by a former stalwart like Abhisit Vejjajiva. No, the party had moved on. Gone are the Oxford-educated conservatives. That species, too, is dead. 

But as bereft of their moorings as they have become, Thailand’s conservatives have their institutional prerogatives still preserved. They remain in power. It is true that they now have to make concessions that they previously would not; a Marriage Equality bill that the Prayut government had refused to countenance has just passed its first reading in parliament, with the full support of almost all of Srettha’s coalition. And their silence on the issue of Thaksin’s status, an issue they would almost certainly have been vocal about if not for the current circumstances, is a little disquieting. But overall, they have by and large succeeded in pulling Pheu Thai into their camp.

Yet power is a temporary expedient. If anything, Pheu Thai and their newfound friends have been relentlessly tactical rather than strategic, consistently sacrificing long-term goals for short-term gains. Pita Limjaroenrat was politically martyred: bad, perhaps, for his prime ministerial ambitions and personal fortunes, but mightily helpful for his party’s. The Move Forward Party has not ended the year on a strong note, dominated as it was by sexual harassment allegations and lawsuits. But their position remains fundamentally strong: were an election to be held today, Move Forward would almost certainly win in a landslide. 

Three years ago I wondered: “was 2020 a year where faith in old certainties faced an irreversible collapse? Or was it a year in which Thailand’s political system demonstrated its resilience and strength?” 

This year was undoubtedly where both were true. The exchange of a general for a property tycoon has led to only a partial change in government; by and large some semblance of the status quo remains. But the reality on the ground is that this year was one where old certainties were shattered. It was a bridge, to be clear. But a bridge to where? To what endpoint? Only the next year and beyond can tell. 

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