Opinion: Thailand’s COO-State

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Decades ago, Thaksin Shinawatra liked to talk about his vision of Thailand as a CEO-state. “A company is a country, a country is a company,” he said in 1997. As As Pasuk Pongpaichit and Chris Baker described it, he “claimed the methods of business management were superior to the traditional practice of bureaucracy or government. He lectured the Cabinet on the latest management theory.” He was not just a businessman who became premier; he was the CEO prime minister.

Not since Thaksin’s fall from power until now has such a prominent businessman taken the role of prime minister. Srettha Thavisin should theoretically also feel like he is another CEO prime minister, hailing as he does from Sansiri. But no one thinks of Srettha along those lines. 

Most importantly, people are not sure if he is in charge. “I am in control,” he insisted to TIME in an interview, after it was suggested that he was a mere puppet for Thaksin. Few leaders who are in control feel the need to proclaim that fact to the world.

Indeed, Srettha out of humility or a clear-eyed assessment of his own status, has declared himself the national salesman. A count done in mid-March found that he has so far spent 30 percent of his time outside Thailand since the start of his premiership. It’s a statistic that calls into question how much capacity the prime minister has left to tend to his other duties after preparing for and going on his foreign trips — and lest we forget, Srettha is concurrently serving as the finance minister. National salesman is a far cry from CEO.

Of course, this situation is hardly new. Two previous prime ministers affiliated with Thaksin, his sister Yingluck Shinawatra and brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat, were hardly widely considered to be masters of their own governments. Pheu Thai was hardly subtle about this, either; in the run-up to the 2011 elections they campaigned on the “Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai acts” slogan. Meanwhile, one suspects that one reason Samak Sundravej had not been re-nominated for the premiership after his ouster for the relatively trivial matter of hosting a cooking show was because he was too much of his own man. 

Yet at least this had all occurred while Thaksin was abroad. Practicing remote communication in a pre-Zoom era, the most exposure Thais had to Thaksin were his occasional “phone-ins” to red shirt rallies. Yes , there were constant stories of this-person and that-person flying to Dubai. The question of who is in control takes on a new level of significance now, however, with Thaksin physically back in Thailand. Officially it was moot while Thaksin was serving his prison sentence from the Police General Hospital. Now, however, for the first time in half a decade Thaksin is roaming around Thailand as a free man. 

It’s become unavoidable: who governs?

We can test-drive a couple of hypotheses. One is that Thaksin has done what he promised to do: his main objective in returning to Thailand was to spend time with his grandchildren. His political ambitions are exhausted and he is now fully in retirement. 

This theory would have few subscribers. It sounds implausible. And one can hardly deny the visual evidence. Thaksin was recently greeted on his trip to Chiang Mai by an entourage that included the prime minister, cabinet ministers, members of parliament and other prominent figures. The widely-circulated picture of Thaksin being flanked by the current prime minister, Srettha, and former prime minister Somchai already is worth a thousand words.

 Not many retirees get that kind of welcome. 

Another theory is that Thaksin acts, not as a Chairman of the Board of sorts. He is not fully involved in the day to day, but his voice still carries weight as the final decision maker, the veto player around whom everything still orbits. In this scenario, Srettha is a prime minister who is tightly constrained by a powerful Board. 

Or, as some may imagine, the Shinawatras wield more daily influence than that. Thaksin’s daughter Paethongtharn’s only formal government position is deputy chair of the government’s national committee on soft power. But that is hardly where she derives her power. She is, after all, the leader of the Pheu Thai Party. The day that she was elected leader, Srettha was photographed kissing her hand. He denied that it was a political gesture, but the visual symbolism was undeniable. The hold the Shinawatras have over the institutional bedrock on which Srettha’s rule depends is undeniable, and it would be implausible if they did not use it to influence policy.

As Khrung Thep Turakij writes while speculating about a potential cabinet reshuffle, “the legal power to decide is with Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, but the decision-maker in the current political structure is in Baan Chan Song Lah.” 

Srettha in this case is acting merely as a Chief Operating Officer. Think of a Tim Cook under Steve Jobs. The COO might oversee the day-to-day functioning of government and supervise some of the government’s key priorities (in this case, Srettha seems to have decided he has a knack for attracting foreign investment). But he is not fully in control, and owing to the fact that he serves at the pleasure of a Chairman to whom he is hardly indispensable, not truly in power.

Thus the question for Srettha is this: what kind of COO is he?

Is he serving primarily as a mentor for the up-and-coming Paethongtharn, who after all was also a prime ministerial candidate? Srettha told TIME that the premiership is his for four years. But four years is an eternity in Thai politics. Few prime ministers have served a full term; in the past twenty years, only Srettha’s predecessor Prayut Chan-o-cha and Thaksin himself have successfully done so. If Srettha does not manage to build up his personal popularity — and it is difficult to see how he will carve an independent brand that is strong enough to sway the electorate — he remains replaceable.

Or is Srettha content to be an executor of policies? Yet even in this more limited role Srettha is hardly well-placed. Lacking a deep power base in the party, and perhaps seen as a temporary placeholder, Srettha is not in an ideal position to drive through difficult policies. Srettha accrued more power for himself by taking the finance portfolio as well, but it is already rumored that the overstretched prime minister may have to give it up. That would limit his latitude even further.

A government with a COO but no real CEO is hardly ideal. It is not good for business confidence — who can invest in the grand vision that Srettha spoke of when they are not sure who is truly in charge? And even more importantly, it certainly does not make getting things done any easier. Thaksin’s CEO-state was not always successful at enacting its policies, and a COO-state is unsurprisingly weaker than a CEO-state. Thai leaders throughout the ages have often found their will frustrated by an unwilling bureaucracy or unfriendly coalition partners. In a COO-state, with power even more diffused, one can only wonder whether the next four years will be fruitful.

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