Analysis – Coalition combination likely to see some rejigging after Constitutional Court’s ruling on Srettha’s fate

Thailand’s political landscape will see a lot of rumbling over the next 36-hours, but the ramifications of these rumbles are likely to be felt in the weeks and months ahead, as political pundits say that the coalition partnership with the Palang Pracharat party (PPRP) has reached a breaking point.

June 18^th is set to be a landmark date for the political landscape in Thailand as 4 political cases are set to be deliberated upon with the Constitutional Court taking in 3 cases, and the Office of the Attorney General that is to charge former Prime Minster Thaksin Shinawatra on charges of breach of Article 112 or Lese Majeste.

The 3 cases with the Constitutional Court are

• Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s alleged ethical misconduct: Forty senators whose terms have expired have asked the Constitutional Court to rule on Srettha’s prime ministership concerning the appointment of former Prime Minister’s Office Minister Pichit Chuenban. The court has ordered related parties to provide additional evidence and witnesses by June 17, a day before the next deliberation on June 18.

The court may rule on this issue as early as July 3 because the judges need 14+1 days to come to a verdict, which falls in early July.

• Move Forward Party’s dissolution: The Election Commission (EC) has requested the court to dissolve the party due to their attempt to amend the lese-majeste law, which the court previously ruled as an attempt to overthrow the constitutional monarchy system. The court has ordered the EC to provide more evidence and witnesses by June 17, a day before the next deliberation on June 18.

The deliberations on this case could go on for a few months (at least util end August) before a decision is made. If the verdict is against the party, then their executive members who campaigned for the law amendment could be banned from politics for 10 years.

• Constitutional Court’s verdict on Senate election rules: Senatorial candidates have filed a petition seeking the court’s ruling on the constitutionality of 4 provisions in the organic law governing the Senate election. The 4 provisions include controversial rules on the introduction of candidates and details on the selection process. If the court rules that these provisions are unconstitutional, petitions could be filed to annul the election results that had its 2^nd phase of elections held yesterday – Sunday June 16, 2024.

Political pundits say that the Constitutional Court is likely to make a decision on this issue tomorrow (Tuesday June 18^th) and if the polls are annulled then the junta appointed 250 Senators would continue to ‘do their job’ until the next elections are held, and new senators are elected.

The 4^th case is with the Office of the Attorney General.

• Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s Lese-Majeste: The Office of the Attorney-General has summoned the former prime minister for the indictment process on June 18. Thaksin was accused of royal defamation by the previous junta for his comments in 2015 when he told a South Korean newspaper that the privy council was behind the 2014 coup. The attorney-general had indicted him for this, and he will file for bail on June 18.

It is likely that the court will grant a bail to Thaksin, as such cases in the past have all been granted bail. Previous cases of breach of Article 112 have all been granted bail on the condition that those granted bail do not repeat their action once out on bail, but those people have all repeated the actions prompting the Royal Thai Police to ask the courts to cancel the bail as the accused had breached their terms for the granting of the bail.

The lese majeste laws also only protects HM the King, HM the Queen, their children and regent (if in place).

Repercussion on the Coalition

The medium to longer term repercussions on the coalition partners seems to be very clear. It is very likely that the PPRP, led by the multi-million dollar watch borrower from dead friends – Prawit Wongsuwon, is on the verge of being kicked out of the coalition but with 40 MPs (39 in Constituency and 1 on Party List) the coalition configuration would need to be a bit different.

PPRP itself is a party that is split with the convicted drug dealer – Thammanat Prompan, who is also the incumbent Agriculture Minister, has about 20-24 MPs out of the 40 MPs in the PPRP fold, but the current constitution does not allow for his faction to be able to split and form a new party, because if they quiet then they will have to resign from their MP status and contest a by-election in those constituencies.

 Reports suggests that Thaksin, the ‘spiritual’ leader of Pheu Thai party, has reported had enough of PPRP’s tantrums and he has openly named someone living in ‘Paah’ or jungle (a reference to Prawit’s office in a place that is called ‘Baan Paah’, as the person being behind all the upheavals against the government be it the case against Prime Minister Srettha or even the case of Lese Majeste on Thaksin (which was undertaken when Prawit was the Deputy Prime Minister in-charge of the Royal Thai police in the government led by the 2014 coup leader Prayut Chan-o-cha).

As part of the reassuring process, Thaksin reportedly had a dinner with all coalition partners on Monday June 10^th.

Sources say that all issues were discussed at the event and Thaksin reportedly reassured that all was good, but things would likely have to be more streamlined, although how that streamlining is going to take place is yet to be known but things would be clearer in the weeks and months ahead after the Constitutional Court rules on the case of Prime Minister Srettha by the 1^st week of July.