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The month of August this year is set to be hottest month so far this year as political temperatures rise to levels not seen since the street protests of 2020/2021 as various court cases are set to be decided during the next few days of this month.
The 2 big cases that are set to see a verdict on are the case of dissolution of Move Forward Party (MFP) which is set on August 7th and the case of ethical breach case against Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin.
The background on the case of MFP, the party with the largest number of MPs in the parliament, is that the Election Commission has asked the Constitutional Court to rule on whether the party should be dissolved based on the court’s ruling that their attempt to amend the lese-majeste law equated to an attempt to overthrow the constitutional monarchy system.
If dissolved, the party executives, during the time they campaigned for the amendment, including former party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, would be banned from politics for 10 years. Deputy House Speaker Padipat Suntiphada was also a member of the MFP’s executive board at the time, so the Padipat will also likely lose his seat as the law stipulates that the seat belongs to incumbent MP.
Meanwhile the case of Prime Minister Srettha is that he allegedly breached ethical standard, after he appointed Pichit Chuenban as PM’s Office Minister. Pichit was convicted in the past and thus questions about his eligibility remains an issue.
If the Constitutional Court rules against Srettha, he will lose his premiership, and the government could be dissolved. This could lead to a delay in the 2025 fiscal budget. Speculations are that the next in line for the premiership could either be Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as she is next in line at the Pheu Thai Party, or Anutin Charnvirakul, the leader of the Bhumjai Thai Party, the second-largest party in the ruling coalition.
MFP Dissolved while Srettha could Survives
The outlook is a question that is being asked across the country and the questions are likely to continue to persist until August 14, the day the verdict on Srettha is delivered by the Constitutional Court.
The case against Move Forward party is something that is being already discounted as it is likely that the courts will disband the party on August 7th. Move Forward has prepared both scenarios – if it survives and if it does not survive.
If the general view is taken into consideration, then it is certain that MFP will be dissolved on August 7th.
The merits and the lack thereof, of such a move has been debated and is known to everyone.
It is nearly assured that MFP will be dissolved and fears of possible street protests has also continued to spook the investors and well-wishers of Thailand.
Street protests are unlikely to happen because it is not something that people want to see, at least as of now. The lack of major protest after the general elections and the formation of the current coalition clearly indicates that the public is not up for another big protest.
But all this could change, if the momentum is built. MFP has been releasing videos to stimulate the thinking of the younger generation to stand up for their rights with the latest video released on Wednesday which said that a political party is formed with the help of the people and only the people should have the right to dissolve it.
But will this kind of raising of public awareness play out on the streets is yet to be seen over the course of the next couple of weeks.
On the other hand, the case of Prime Minister Srettha is a bit more complicated.
The allegations of breach of ethical morality are something that can be debated and there is another sitting Minister who was jailed in Australia, for who the same court had given a ‘Green light’ just a few years ago, citing that he was jailed outside the country, therefore the rules do not apply.
Pichit Chuenban has served his sentence in 2008 but what reasoning would be given is yet to be seen on why Srettha should remain in office.
The Number Game
There is more to it than meets the eye for the 2 cases to go in the same direction. The fact that both MFP being dissolved, and Prime Minister Srettha being impeached could have a greater implication.
If one looks at the current configuration of the parliament MFP has the largest number of seats (148 MPs as of last count), and Phue Thai party has 142 MPs. Even with 30 MPs of Move Forward party possibly switching to other parties with offer of money to buy them off, would leave the 2 parties with as many as 260 MPs in their side.
The number of MPs switching sides from MFP would not exceed 20% of the current number of MPs because of the fact that all previous MPs who switched from Future Forward party after the party was dissolved did not make it in the 2023 elections. This failure of those who jump ships would likely deter a major exodus of MPs from MFP on August 7 if the party is dissolved.
With 260 MPs on their side, the 2 parties could possibly join hands and form a government without having to get 375 votes in the combined house voting for a new Prime Minister that was required until the last set of Senators were in power.
With the new senate in place, the powers bestowed upon the senators to be part of the selection process of a new Prime Minister has been taken away, thus, to put in a new Prime Minister the parliament only needs 251 votes out of the 500 MPs in the parliament.
Move Forward party and Pheu Thai party have been a little kind to each other over the past few months, and some media have already been calling MFP as back peddling on doing a good job as the opposition.
This number of 260 does not include the breakaway faction from the Palang Pracharat party (PPRP) which is backed by the drug dealing convict Thammanat Prompao, who reportedly controls as many as 20 MPs in the 40 MPs strength of PPRP.
The possible combination of MFP and Pheu Thai party, which is probable because both parties would be at the receiving end of the outcome, would deter any possible prosecution of both the parties.
But at the end of the day as they say, ‘this is Thailand’ (TIT) and anything can happen. In exactly a week, MFP may be spared and may have only minor punitive damage, after all their election manifesto was approved by Election Commission before it was made public. The same Election Commission that has come out to say that the manifesto’s clauses were a breach of Article 112. And Prime Minister Srettha may not survive, despite all the odds stacked for him to continue as Prime Minister.
In any case the next 14-days is likely to be crucial to the political future of Thailand for the next few years to come.