Listen to this story |
The fate of the 11-month-old government of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is set to see a sea change in its course after the judgement by the Constitutional Court today.
The Constitutional Court is set to deliver its verdict on the fate of Prime Minister Srettha starting at 15:00 hrs. and as stated by Thai Enquirer’s piece on August 1, it is assured that Prime Minister Srettha will survive the case filed against him by the now ex-junta appointed senators.
What is more important is the fact that the government of Srettha will see a major overhaul of its operations soon after the verdict is handed down.
“There is only one way, either you are with us, or you are out” was a quote by someone who has enough power in the current coalition to make changes.
“The country has been suffering from loss of confidence among foreigners and domestically the economy is in shambles and these people are playing dirty internal politics,” said this person who said that the changes would come after the verdict that would bring the country back to where it should be.
Srettha’s government that won the parliamentary majority on August 22, 2023, is set to celebrate its 1st anniversary in just about 8-days from today and there is not a single tangible result to show to the people except may be for the rise in tourism numbers.
The aim is to revamp the Cabinet and possibly the coalition members to streamline the entire working of the government to revive the economy and the standard of living of the people.
Srettha To Survive
In the article published on August 1, we had put the points up front that Move Forward party would be dissolved and that Srettha would manage to survive the allegations of breach of ethical standard by appointing Phichit Chuenban as Minister of the Prime Minister’s Office. The allegations of the 40 ex-senators were that because Phichit was jailed for bribing court officials, he lacked the moral standard to be a minister and Prime Minister Srettha having known this still went ahead to appoint him to the position.
In his defense statement and evidence Srettha has stated that he was a businessman who did not know the intricate details of how the government system works. Although the defense statement is trying to portray Srettha to have made ‘an honest mistake’ similar to an honest mistake Thaksin Shinawatra had made in 2001 Constitutional Court ruling.
Complicating the already precarious situation is the fact that Srettha’s legal adviser – Wissanu Krea-ngam, came out to give conflicting statement that the Prime Minister may not be able to continue as a ‘caretaker’ in case the Constitutional Court finds him guilty.
Wissanu, has come out to say that if the court finds Srettha guilty then Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai would be in place as caretaker until a new Prime Minister is sworn in.
The fact that the legal adviser to the Prime Minister comes out to make such statement puts into question the entire argument that Srettha will survive.
Coalition Reshuffle
What is assured is the fact that the powers that may be have clearly indicated that internal rebellion among the coalition members is not going to be tolerated anymore. The country needs to move forward, and the tone of the entire future is set to be revealed on August 22.
August 22 is the D-day as it marks the 1st anniversary of the premiership of Srettha and also the 1st anniversary of the return of Thaksin back to Thailand. It is also the day that Thaksin becomes a free man from the current status as being on ‘parole’.
Pheu Thai party that has in the past been the party that was always considered ‘pro-growth’ today faces a daunting task of reviving the stalling Thai economy with businesses and general public even going as far as to call for the return of the 2014 coup leader – Prayut Chan-o-cha, because the economy seems to be in a worse condition than in it was a few years ago.
This comes in contrast to the global economy that has been humming with growth and stocks markets around the world breaking records over the past couple of months (they have retreated slightly over the past couple of weeks but overall year-to-date they are still higher in double digit percentage).
The lack of clarity and continued infighting in the coalition has played a role in the lack of confidence in the leadership of Srettha. Questions on how long Srettha last will was raised on the very 1st day he won the votes in the joint sitting of the upper and lower house of the parliament in August 2023.
That question continues until now, despite the repeated efforts by the Phue Thai party to state that Srettha will remain in power.
If a political hick up does take place and Srettha is removed, it is likely that Pheu Thai party will remain the leader in the coalition and this time (with or without Srettha) the rebel coalition members would be thrown out of the coalition.
Palang Pracharat party (PPRP), with its leader – Prawit Wongsuwon, has been personally pointed out by Thaksin as being one of those creating problems. PPRP and its multi-million dollar watch borrower from dead friends, leader – Prawit, has been creating internal rift in the coalition and thus a hindrance to the governance by Srettha.
PPRP with 40 MPs would likely be thrown out, with rebel MPs from PPRP under the convicted drug dealer and current Minister of Agriculture – Thammant Promprao, likely to rebel against Prawit and remain in the coalition. He controls about 20 MPs from the 40 in PPRP.
With 314 MPs on its side, the Pheu Thai led coalition would not fall short of the majority needed but it may bring in faction of the Democrat party (about 20 MPs) to beef up the ousting of the non-compliant MPs from the PPRP who would end up in the opposition.