Srettha Thavisin Removed as Prime Minister

In a landmark case, the Constitutional Court has ruled by a 5-4 vote that Srettha Thavisin is to be removed as prime minister due to breaching ethical guidelines in appointing a minister. In a cabinet reshuffle, Srettha had appointed Pichit Chuenban, who previously served a prison sentence for attempting to bribe a court, as minister attached to the Prime Minister’s office. The case had been brought forward by a group of senators widely reported to be aligned with former deputy prime minister and current leader of the Palang Pracharath Party Prawit Wongsuwan.

Srettha had served as prime minister for less than a year, after a Pheu Thai government was forged out of a grand compromise with the conservative parties in the aftermath of the 2023 general election. A property tycoon and political novice, Srettha’s premiership was marked by a flurry of attempts to uplift international investment and tourism, but major initiatives such as a 10,000 baht giveaway failed to take off. Both the future of that policy, and that of Srettha’s long-term “Ignite Thailand” vision, will now be in limbo. 

At only 358 days, Srettha’s premiership is one of the shortest in recent history. Since 2001, only Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat, two former prime ministers also aligned with Thaksin Shinawatra and also removed by the Constitutional Court, have been prime minister for shorter. After Thaksin, who won re-election in 2005 and was then removed by a military coup in 2006, not a single Thaksinite prime minister has served a full term in office.

Who will become the next prime minister? 

In the immediate aftermath, Srettha’s cabinet has also been removed with him. Although previously the government’s legal advisor Wissanu Kruea-ngarm had said that Srettha would be eligible to serve as acting prime minister, he later corrected himself to the media and noted that it would be the first deputy prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai who will serve in this role. 

Phumtham is an influential figure in Pheu Thai, but he is not eligible to run for prime minister. Whether or not Pheu Thai will be able to keep the premiership in their hands is an open question. According to the 2017 constitution, the Thai parliament can only select from a bank of prime ministerial candidates that had been submitted at the 2023 general election, and whose parties won at least 25 seats.. A temporary clause that allowed for nominations from outside this list has now expired. Therefore, parliament is limited to the following choices: Paethongtharn Shinawatra and Chaikasem Nitisiri from Pheu Thai, Anutin Charnvirakul from Bhumjaithai, Prawit Wongsuwan from Palang Pracharath, Prayut Chan-o-cha and Pirapan Salirathvibagha from the United Thai Nation Party, and Jurin Laksanawisit from the Democrats. (Pita Limjaroenrat from the Move Forward Party is no longer eligible after being banned from politics for ten years).

We can eliminate several candidates from this list. Chaikasem is reported to be in ill health and unlikely to be nominated. Prayut is now a privy councilor and unlikely to desire a return to politics. Jurin, as an opposition MP, faces immensely tall odds. This leaves Paethongtharn, Anutin, Prawit and Pirapan as the four likeliest candidates to become prime minister. 

It has been speculated that Paethongtharn does not want the role yet, but if she turns it down, the premiership would fall out of Pheu Thai’s hands. Pirapan’s party has too few votes for him to be a convincing candidate. Prawit, whose allies instigated this episode, is rumored to still be hopeful about one day becoming prime minister, but his path is exceedingly narrow: the Senate, which he once held sway over, is no longer able to join with the House of Representatives in selecting a prime minister. Given the bad blood between him and Thaksin, it seems highly unlikely that Pheu Thai would be willing to accept a Prawit government.

If forced to make a guess, then, it would be this: it’s Paethongtharn’s to have if she wants it, but if she doesn’t, Anutin would be the most likely successor to Srettha. There was wide speculation about what was discussed between Anutin and Thaksin when they recently went golfing, but it would not be surprising at all if some agreement about a post-Srettha world has now been reached.

What does this ruling mean for Thai politics?

What the removal of Srettha means for the wider political landscape is difficult to interpret. For one, Srettha was never widely viewed as the main character in his own government: he lacked a political base of his own, was not popular electorally, and had very limited governing experience. To borrow an analogy, Thaksin often compared himself as the CEO of the country; his allied successors like Samak, Somchai, Yingluck and Srettha often felt more like Chief Operating Officers without full latitude to independently decide policy. One can recall a 2011 election banner which stated: “Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai acts.” As a non-Shinawatra, Srettha always felt like a player who Pheu Thai could have afforded to be taken off the board.

So the key question here is: what does this ruling mean for Thaksin’s role in politics? Thaksin had painted himself, upon returning from his long self-exile, as a retiree devoted to his grandchildren. But Thaksin’s increasingly visible role in political life — just yesterday he addressed a Pheu Thai party meeting and set a goal for the party to win 200 MPs at the next election — may have now crossed a line. In any case, the selection of his associate Pichit for a ministerial role played a direct role in ending the Srettha government. Whether or not Thaksin will feel the need to circumscribe his public role in Thai political life remains to be seen. 

The removal of Srettha’s implications for the grand compromise between the conservative parties and Thaksin is unclear. We take a risk in unduly interpreting the conservative establishment as a unitary actor; although the Senators may have initiated this move, to what extent the other conservative parties agreed with this movement is unknowable. Just a few days ago, Prayut and Srettha were pictured laughing amicably as Prayut insisted to United Thai Nation ministers that they behave themselves. 

The coalition will almost certainly hold on — few are predicting a dissolution of parliament anytime soon, given that Move Forward’s successor People’s Party would be tipped to do well in fresh elections — but with a new head. If Anutin becomes prime minister, the balance of power will have decisively shifted even more towards those previously aligned with the military government. Even if he does not, however, it is now clear that Pheu Thai and Thaksin hardly hold the good cards in this political game. They remain office, but the extent to which they are in power is deeply questionable.