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The Constitutional Court’s decision yesterday was legally sound but politically controversial.
The dissolution of the Move Forward Party, which held the most seats after the 2023 general election, and the removal of former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin—who was from the party with the second-largest number of seats—by appointed members of so-called independent institutions raises concerns about judicial independence and fairness. This situation could be perceived as a judicial coup, undermining democratic norms.
Nevertheless, the court’s ruling on the appointment of former PM’s officer, Pichit Chuenban, was justified. Pichit’s appointment was problematic from the beginning, and Srettha should have taken the warnings seriously.
Formally, Pichit was convicted only of contempt of court. He argued that he was unaware of the 2 million baht found in the “candy bag,” which led to allegations of bribery while he represented former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a 2008 land deal case. However, as noted by the court, the conviction and the loss of his legal license cast doubt on his integrity. Such doubts about a minister’s honesty undermine the principles of good governance.
In contrast, the persistence of Thamanat Prompao as agriculture minister—despite his 1994 conviction for heroin smuggling—reflects inconsistencies in accountability. This situation highlights a troubling double standard in the application of democratic principles.
The current political landscape shows that the Pheu Thai-led coalition is likely to remain stable for now, with the next PM nomination coming from the Pheu Thai Party, and the Bhumjaithai Party refraining from contesting it at this stage.
As the People’s Party works to regain stability, Pheu Thai views Bhumjaithai as a key competitor leading up to the next general election in 2027. However, this timeline is uncertain, as early elections could occur if negotiations fail.
If Chaikasem Nitisiri from Pheu Thai becomes the 31st prime minister and the cabinet remains largely unchanged, the status quo may persist. Conversely, if Anutin becomes the new prime minister, significant changes could follow.
Additionally, the lese-majeste case against former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra adds another layer of complexity. Aligning with controversial figures often leads to unpredictable outcomes, and if Thaksin is sentenced to jail for lese-majeste, more political upheaval can be expected.
Further clarity will emerge following today’s meetings of Pheu Thai MPs, coalition whips, and the caretaker cabinet. The announcement of the new prime minister, possibly as soon as tomorrow, will provide additional insights.
Overall, the dissolution of the MFP and Srettha’s removal indicate a troubling trend for democratic development in Thailand, suggesting that democratic principles and judicial fairness are increasingly under threat.