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The victory of Pheu Thai party’s candidate for the by-elections in Phitsanulok – Chadet Chanthara, should give the battered ruling party, a morale boost after it has been cornered ever since it formed an alliance to join hands with its former nemesis.
The victory of by-elections in Constituency 1 of Phitsanulok marks the 1st time in nearly 2-decades that the ruling Pheu Thai party has managed to get itself an MP from this constituency.
The victory of Chadet also has a deeper meaning to it. The contest in this constituency was between only 2 candidates, the one from People’s Party – Nathachanon Chanaburanasak, and Pheu Thai’s Chadet.
Other parties that had contested the constituency in May 2023 general elections decided not to contest, thus leaving the by-election to be a 2-horse race.
Pheu Thai party managed to gain more than 19,000 new voters in the constituency from the numbers it had seen on May 14, 2023, general elections.
People’s party (the successor party to the now defunct – Move Forward party), saw its vote bank decline to just over 30,000 in the constituency, a decline from the nearly 41,000 votes it had seen in May 2023 general elections.
This showing of People’s party comes despite the fact that its who’s who from the various sides including the previous leader – Pita Limjaroenrat and the former leader of the now defunct Future Forward party – Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit along with other heavyweights of the groups had been campaigning to retain their seat in the constituency.
The Phitsanulok Constituency 1 seat was vacated after Padipat Suntiphada, the former first deputy house speaker, who was disqualified from political office following the dissolution of the Move Forward Party (MFP) on August 7, 2024.
Political analysts say that the loss of 10,000 votes for People’s party was mainly due to the loss of ‘early voting’ for those not living in the province but have their house registration in the constituency.
Brighter Future for Pheu Thai
Chadet’s victory is the 1st such victory of a constituency MP since May 14, 2023, general elections and comes on the heels of Pheu Thai breaking away from pre-poll alliance member – Move Forward party, a move that had been widely criticized and frowned upon.
Pheu Thai party’s move to form an alliance with Pheu Thai and Move Forward party’s arch nemesis’ such as Ruam Thai Saang Chart party (RTSC) and Palang Pracharat party (PPRP) in August 2023 had seen protests and even predictions of the ‘end’ of Pheu Thai party when elections are held.
But so far, those predictions can be discarded because not only has Pheu Thai managed to prove it to be wrong for this election, but it has also managed to win literally every local election that has been taking place for the so called ‘Provincial Administrative Office (PAO).’
Pheu Thai also needs to realize that a lot of the votes it gained from 18,180 votes it received in May 2023 to 37,029 votes yesterday, could be attributed to the contribution from the ‘conservative’ votes that had flowed into RTSC and PPRP. The low voter turnout may have also contributed to the positive outcome for Pheu Thai party.
People’s Party Needs to Change Strategy
One outcome from the by-elections in Phistanulok is that the vote bank of People’s party has not seen much shift (10,000 votes that were lost in the early elections could have changed the course of this elections).
What People’s party has not been able to harness is the voters from the other parties. The fact that only 2 parties were contesting this election should have given People’s party a chance to tap into the lack of choice among the voters and thus able to attract more of the non-core votes of People’s party, but alas that was not the case.
Despite the handicap that Pheu Thai had, after it had joined hands with the ‘enemy’, People’s party was not able to convince the people that it was the party that the population of Phitasanulok need to trust and vote.
The lack of any tangible results of the 1-year of Pheu Thai government could have been used as a tool to attract the disgruntled voters but alas that was not the case.
The core voter base of People’s party remained as is, while Pheu Thai, which by-the-way did not have heavy weights going and campaigning for Chadet, managed to win the by-elections.
For People’s party, the job to win the 2027 general elections would be a much harder feat to accomplish, because Pheu Thai is determined to revive the economy. This was laid out in the parliament by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in her policy statement and if these are accomplished then it could make it a herculean task for People’s party.
People’s party would need to start winning more local elections in order to show that they too have some capabilities to make changes or else come 2027, they would be overshadowed by Pheu Thai.
But none of the leader or so called ‘spiritual leaders’ of People’s party have come out to say anything, except for maybe Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, who said that “lessons learned, prepare to fight against the combined forces of “3 elites: Traditional elite / Political elite from all parties / Economic elite” who will use the “Phitsanulok model” to expand the results in the MP elections nationwide”.
Other leaders simply said that they would continue to learn and fight the ‘long-term’ game.
Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the leader of the People’s party came out to say that the loss in Phitsanulok is something that should not discourage the members of People’s party as politics is a ‘long-term’ game.
“At that time, we decided to work in politics we did not expect victory in the short term, but we want to work in politics long term, collecting small victories little by little, losing some, winning some, but how can we make every defeat a small victory, as we gradually advance into the hearts of our people,” Natthaphong said in a post on social media.
Pita, who was removed from his position and banned from politics by the Constitutional Court for a period of 10-years, said that politics is a long game. It requires strategy and perseverance. There are wins and losses as usual.
“Winning may not be the goal, and losing may not be the destination. We still must fight for many more rounds. I hope you will not stop working for the people. You will become better, develop yourself to be better, and prepare for the next election. Don’t be discouraged.”
