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So first, the ignominious statistics.
The People’s Party, since it became the now-dissolved Move Forward Party’s (MFP) successor party, has now contested three elections: local elections in Phitsanulok and Ratchaburi and the Constituency 1 by-election also in Phitsanulok.
In the election for Provincial Administrative Organization (PAO) chairman in Phitsanulok, the People’s Party (PP) candidate Siripan Prajak-ubon came over 100,000 votes behind former chairman Monchai Wiwatthanat.
As for the PAO election in Ratchaburi, the PP candidate Chairath Sakissarapong was defeated by the incumbent, independent candidate Wiwat Nitikanchana, by a margin of almost 70,000 votes.
And the latest by-elections on Sunday September 15th for the member of parliament (MP) seat, in Phitsanulok, Nathachanon Chanaburanasak from the PP was defeated by Pheu Thai Party’s (PTP) Jadet Jantar by around 7,000 votes.
Certainly, not an ideal start to the season for this new team. But while all three have been defeats, they tell different stories for the state of the People’s Party and the Thai political landscape at large.
In 2020, the Thanathorn Juangroongrueangkit-led Progressive Movement (allied, of course, with whichever orange parliamentary party is currently existing) had contested 42 of the PAO elections and come up entirely empty-handed.
Several explanations were provided, back then, for why the progressives performed so poorly in that election: they were up against entrenched political dynasties who were more than capable of defending their home turf, for example. Another was the lack of early voting, which effectively depresses turnout from those who are living out of province and unable to make it home that day to vote.
The same explanations would apply now for the PAO elections. Four years after Thanathorn had led the Progressive Movement into the local elections with high hopes, the PP is still unable to compete effectively in the local elections.
This is not yet a surprise. To be sure, the Move Forward Party had made immense progress from Future Forward last year in their ability to contest for parliamentary constituencies. Far from being effective only at garnering party-list votes, the MFP had come in first or second in every single constituency in 2023. Elections for local offices, however, are a different matter.
So, what then explains the PP’s defeat in Phitsanulok’s parliamentaryelection? This one, for the PP leadership, must particularly sting.
The constituency had gone for Future Forward since 2019, when the party had won only 31 constituencies. It had been represented by no other than Padipat Suntiphada, the former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, whose disqualification from politics following the MFP’s dissolution had been the trigger for this by-election.
Just last year, the MFP had managed to win a Rayong by-election after its newly elected MP had to resign because it was revealed he had previously been convicted for theft. If under such circumstances the MFP could win, then why did the PP, now a prime recipient of sympathy, fail in such a high-profile race?
The lack of early voting could again be the culprit here. But it could also be the case that the PP simply found it too difficult to defeat Pheu Thai in a head-to-head race.
In 2019, Padipat had won the constituency with 37% of the vote. In 2023, he was re-elected with 41% of the vote. In a race where Palang Pracharath party (PPRP) and Ruam Thai Saang Chart party (RTSC) were also contesting, each taking 19% and 10% of the vote respectively in 2023. MFP’s 41% was more than sufficient for a win.
This time, the PP candidate Nathachanon had won around 40% of the vote — in other words, not too far off from the vote share that Padipat had won previously. The problem for him, however, is the conservative vote appears to have consolidated behind Pheu Thai.
In 2023, Pheu Thai had managed to win only 18% of the vote — they certainly received help from people who had previously voted for the PPRP or RTSC.
On the one hand, this appears to be a one-off: coalition parties almost always agree to run only a single candidate in order to not cannibalize each other’s votes. Pheu Thai would not get this advantage at the next general election, when many voters who despise both Pheu Thai and the PP will not cast a vote for either.
On the other hand, this is a new phenomenon. Could this represent a new sign of tactical voting in Thailand? Will the conservative voters who, despise former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra as they might, now be willing to hold their nose and vote for Pheu Thai out of the greater need to keep the PP out of power?
If so, this could be a promising sign for Pheu Thai. Despite its stumbles so far in office, and despite having a fresh-faced Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister, the party is apparently capable of drawing votes from the people who hates it the most.
Of course, we should not extrapolate too much from a single by-election. The next general election is most likely still years away, and by that point Shinawatra exhaustion could have made voters think very differently.
But wait before you make a call. You have to recall that Phitsanulok’s first constituency used to be represented by the Democrats’ Warong Dechgitvigrom, who was one of the most ardently anti-Thaksin and conservative MPs. Pheu Thai got Warong’s former constituents to vote for them. That is something political strategists will certainly be pondering in the days and weeks ahead.