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Pheu Thai party, the party that has always been in majority in every government it has managed to form since 2001, is facing an unprecedented maneuvering of political parties that are gradually looking to make the core coalition member look as if it is being underplayed.
Thai Rak Thai party (TRT), that was the 1st ever party to have an absolute majority in the parliamentary history of Thailand, was the core of the coalition up until the September 19, 2006, coup that ousted Thaksin Shinawatra, as the Prime Minister.
Under the TRT government, the then Prime Minister Thaksin, was able to push through major economic and social policies, thanks to the absolute majority the government had in the parliament and all other parties were only nodding to the demands of the then goliath in the parliament.
Then came the 2006 and the disbandment of TRT in 2007. Elections were held in December 2007 and the reincarnation of Thai Rak Thai – People’s Power Party, and the December 2007 polls saw PPP get 233 seats in the 480 seats in the parliament, a close enough number to a majority, but despite the shenanigans played by the military to scuttle the return of PPP, the party managed to cobble a coalition. The 2007 elections had Democrat party as the 2nd largest political party who were at 165 seats. The PPP were leading with 68 seats; thus, the power of PPP was unquestionable.
Long before things were calm, came December 2008, and the PPP was dissolved by the Constitutional Court, on flimsy grounds ‘electoral fraud’ for the 2007 general elections. A so called ‘government set up in the military barracks’ was formed with Abhisit Vejjajiva becoming the Prime Minister on December 17, 2008.
After the dissolution of the PPP, the new incarnation was called Pheu Thai party (PTP), and in July 2011 saw the PTP win 265 seats, giving the party an absolute majority in the lower house of the parliament. Thaksin’s sister Yingluck became the Prime Minister.
What was interesting in the 2011 election, was the emergence of Bhumjai Thai party (BJT). BJT was the splinter group that had broken away from PPP to help prop the Abhisit government in 2008, with the de-facto leader of BJT – Newin Chidchop, at one point coming out to tell Thaksin ‘It is over Boss’.
Fast forward to the 9+ years of the coup lead government of 2014 coup leader Prayut Cha-o-cha, and May 2023 elections saw PTP the election results as a shock after it managed to garner only 141 seats (now 142 after the victory in the by-elections in Phitsanulok earlier this month). Not a bad number but the now defunct – Move Forward party (MFP), had managed to get 151 seats, thus unseating the PTP (and its predecessors TRT and PPP) for the 1st time since 2001 elections.
A Loss of being the supreme in the political arena of Thailand since 2001 has made PTP join hands with many of its previous foes and being manipulated by the other coalition partners.
Ambitious Bhumjai Thai
Bhumjai Thai party (BJT), the 2nd largest coalition partner in the more than a dozen coalition partners forming the government today, has been playing a bigger role in defining the way things are done by the current government.
BJT, a party with 71 seats in the current parliament, has managed to play a bigger role in pushing his way around with the first evidence coming when the Senate ‘elections’ took place earlier this year. BJT’s supported senators managed to capture nearly 140 out of the 200 senators that were through various ways selected to be senator for a period of 5-years.
The Senate has the power to pass a bill or not after the lower houses passes it, in a way it is the next step for any bill that manages to get through from the PTP controlled lower house.
What this means, is that BJT becomes an equal partner in the governance of the country to PTP, because Bhumjai Thai has the power to push through any bills.
To take the step further Anutin, whose ambition to become Prime Minister is an open secret, came out to say that come next elections in 2027, his party would be contesting the elections in competition with Pheu Thai party, although at the moment they may not contest in by-elections if Pheu Thai party decides to field candidates.
Tread Carefully
The recent fiasco in which Pheu Thai party had to ‘put off’ its plans to amend the constitution by picking and choosing each clause that could be a hinderance to the governance of the country. PTP along with People’s party (PP), had proposed to amend the various clauses of the charter without having to amend the entire constitution.
Both PTP and PP had pledged to amend the charter once they formed the government and after the ‘ethics’ issue used by the Constitutional Court to kick out Srettha Thavisin from the position of the Prime Minister, the issue to amend the charter, especially on the ‘ethics’ issue was discussed by nearly all parties.
Even Anutin during the private conversations had admitted that the issue of ‘ethics’ was something that needs to be amended. His own party – BJT, was unable to place Chada Thaised as the Deputy Minister of Agriculture, and had to put Chada’s sister – Mananya Thaised, as his replacement amid possible issue about ‘ethics’.
Despite accepting privately that this clause was necessary, BJT and its leadership, came out to announce that it was only going to support the move to amend the entire constitution not just doing it clause by clause.
This backstepping by BJT has left PTP out in the open to take the fall. Criticism of how Pheu Thai is taking a step back in the move it announced, has left the leader of the coalition – Pheu Thai, looking a little vulnerable.
Even if Pheu Thai pushes this clause-by-clause amendment forward, which may be supported by the People’s party, the combined forces of the lower house would not be enough to pass the bill through the upper house that is controlled by BJT ‘supporters’.
The vulnerability of Pheu Thai has come out in the open and is a lesson for the party to work things out in the background before they make a public statement.
These kinds of action, that needs collective strength, needs to be done in a format that has a written (and signed) statement of the coalition partners before it is put out in the public domain.
By doing so the coalition leader avoids being ridiculed in the public and also avoids being seen as one that has to rely totally on one party for its working. A few such mishaps and the confidence that has been entrusted upon the government of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, could evaporate and that could be detrimental to the planned development of the country that the Pheu Thai party wants to undertake over the next 3-years before the 2027 general elections.
It is therefore important that Pheu Thai party needs to tread carefully in every step it takes and not jump to every issue that comes out until there is a consensus among the coalition partners and not fall into the trap that could help be a positive momentum for the party that is set to be the next major rival of PTP come 2027.