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A summary of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s interview at the Forbes Global CEO Conference last night.
Journey from entrepreneur to politician:
Thaksin: It has been “heaven and hell.” He started a business from scratch, facing many challenges before seeing success in business, and then transitioned into politics. He decided to enter the political scene because, whenever he returned to his hometown in Chiang Mai, he saw that many people were still struggling with poverty, and he wanted to help. He said that at the start of his political career, it felt like a success—he saw “heaven”—but later faced difficult times, experiencing what he called “hell.” He believes his life has been full of both highs and lows, encapsulating the idea of “heaven and hell.”
The current government:
Thaksin: As a coalition government, disagreements are inevitable, but ultimately, consensus must be reached. He considers it “lucky” that many of the current coalition partners worked with him during his leadership of the Thai Rak Thai Party, and most of the key players today were ministers in his cabinet, fostering good relationships within the current government. He also noted that the current Prime Minister, his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is similar to him, providing a sense of familiarity.
Political attacks:
Thaksin: He said he has been through countless attacks, so nothing surprises him anymore. While he understands what happened in the past, he prefers to focus on moving forward. He recalled a saying from his election campaign: there’s no point in worrying about the barking dogs, as it’s best to keep peace of mind. He learned to find inner peace after spending 17 years in self-exile, understanding that unhappiness with oneself prevents rest and peace.
Thai Economy:
Thaksin: He said the Thai economy has struggled with growth over the past decade, with the military and central bank believing that Thailand should avoid letting commercial banks fail, still scarred by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. He explained that the government and central bank have been issuing bonds, which commercial banks have been buying, leading to low liquidity in the economic system compared to other countries. This has contributed to slower growth in Thailand.
He also pointed out that many industries in Thailand are “sunset industries” and that new ideas and sectors are needed to revive the economy.
Central Bank’s roles:
Thaksin: The central bank has two roles: managing interest rates and currency, and overseeing the banking system. However, he said the central bank sometimes confuses these roles by being overly protective of commercial banks, which now hold a lot of capital. The central bank is trying to inject liquidity back into the system. He compared the situation to a pond from which too much water has been drained—fish can’t survive or lay eggs in such a scenario.
While the central bank is independent, Thaksin believes they should sometimes listen to practical advice. He added that many central bank officials are highly educated, often with top grades, and may believe they know best, but that’s not always the case. He emphasized that businesspeople understand the economic situation and practicalities well. He drew a parallel to U.S. president-elect Donald Trump, who, as a businessman, seeks to create a “shadow” Federal Reserve chair to restore balance.
Stable Coin:
Thaksin: He discussed the possibility of issuing a stable coin backed by government bonds, where spending the coin would yield no interest, but holding it would generate interest.
SMEs:
Thaksin: He stressed the importance of ideas, technology, and business models in driving success. When those factors are in place, capital will flow in because global liquidity is abundant and seeks profitable ventures. He urged SMEs in Thailand to rethink their strategies and improve their competitiveness, as they will face fierce competition, particularly from Chinese SMEs that benefit from economies of scale due to China’s large population and lower production costs.
He acknowledged Thailand’s strengths in the creative economy and encouraged Thai SMEs to explore opportunities in this sector, leveraging technology for growth. He also emphasized the need for value-added products and urged the government to protect local manufacturers. For example, he said China’s Temu should be required to register a business entity in Thailand and pay taxes here. Similarly, imported products should meet the same standards as those produced locally.
Tax simplification:
Thaksin: He mentioned that the Prime Minister’s economic team is considering tax reforms, which could include lowering personal and corporate income taxes while raising VAT. However, a system to quickly return taxes to low-income earners must be established to prevent harm. He noted that the government is also exploring a negative income tax model.
Regarding corporate income tax, Thaksin highlighted the OECD’s proposed global minimum rate of 15% and Singapore’s rate of 17%. He indicated that Thailand’s new rate “will be very competitive,” though he didn’t specify a target. He also noted that the reduction would happen gradually.
He explained that in today’s economy, asking for less often results in more—lower tax rates could ultimately lead to higher government revenues. He cited the Yingluck administration’s success in reducing corporate tax rates while meeting collection targets, contrasting that with the previous government under Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha, which avoided tax cuts.
Thaksin argued that lowering taxes is crucial to increasing purchasing power.
Advice for Trump and comments on the trade war between the U.S. and China:
Thaksin: He cautioned that Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods and 10-20% on products from all U.S. trading partners would ultimately hurt U.S. consumers, as the U.S. still relies on imports. He explained that the burden of increased costs would fall on American consumers, not Chinese ones.
He also predicted that Trump’s protectionist policies could escalate the trade war between the U.S. and China, potentially leading to the relocation of production bases. He noted that Chinese, U.S., and Taiwanese companies are already considering moving operations to Thailand to avoid the trade conflict and gain access to all markets. Thailand’s plentiful electricity supply, available land, and skilled labor are attracting these companies, but Thaksin emphasized the need for tax incentives to further encourage investment.
BRICS and Bitcoin:
Thaksin: He expressed Thailand’s interest in joining BRICS, as the government wants a more balanced global financial system, which has been dominated by Western institutions for too long. He believes BRICS could provide a new payment mechanism to compete with SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication).
He mentioned that alternative currencies, such as the Chinese Renminbi or even Bitcoin, could serve as a new payment system. He noted that Trump is considering Bitcoin as a way to pay U.S. debt. Thaksin believes that if the U.S. starts buying Bitcoin to manage its debt, the value of Bitcoin could continue to rise. He said it has been noted by others that Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 by February and reach $1 million by 2030.
Thaksin explained that some countries have already accepted Bitcoin as part of their foreign reserves and as a payment method, including for purchasing real estate. He clarified that he doesn’t personally invest in Bitcoin but noted that some of his friends have made significant investments.
ASEAN:
Thaksin: He argued that ASEAN needs a unified strategy to avoid becoming merely a social gathering for leaders. He believes that ASEAN leaders must come together to create common policies and ideas rather than operating under ten different frameworks, such as different tax policies or rules on free trade between member states.
APEC:
Thaksin: He commented that APEC is no longer as exciting because of the disparity between member economies. The wide gap between rich and poor countries has made consensus difficult. Thaksin suggested that APEC needs to reform by fostering greater support for smaller economies. Larger economies should help smaller ones, as ASEAN already does—for example, by providing privileges for smaller economies to access markets in more developed countries.
Kra Canal vs. Land Bridge:
Thaksin: He stated that building the Kra Canal is unfeasible due to concerns that it would divide the country, compounded by the ongoing insurgency in the southern border region. The government is therefore opting for the Land Bridge instead, and ideas are being developed to make it economically viable. He stressed that the Thai government cannot fund the project alone and would require private sector investment, noting that some businesses are already considering investing because of the long-term strategic benefits.
Vision for Thailand in the next decade:
Thaksin: He expressed that Thailand should lower electricity costs to attract investment in the tech industry. The ideal rate is 6 cents per unit, but Thailand’s rate is currently around 13 cents. He suggested that taxes could be removed from the electricity pricing formula to reduce costs. Direct Power Purchase Agreements could also be an option.
He also said that the government aims to focus on two main areas over the next five years: the creative economy, or “soft power,” along with hospitality in which Thailand already excels, and the AI sector by attracting more data center investments. He emphasized that the government envisions creating “digital embassies,” with data centers from around the world being located in Thailand as backup facilities.
