Thailand’s political future is on the brink of spiraling into another round of instability.
Today at 3 pm, the Constitutional Court will rule whether or not the Future Forward Party and its leaders are guilty of accepting a loan from its leader, Thanathorn Juengrungruenkit.
There is a possibility that the party will be disbanded and their top leaders barred from running in future elections.
The issue central to this case is not so much in the details, but rather the potential for further disenfranchisement of Future Forward Party’s loyal fans who are mostly young people.
This is extremely dangerous as today’s verdict is part of a consistent pattern of political and judicial attacks against the party and its leaders, ever since they unexpectedly came third and garnered over 6 million votes in the last general elections.
The establishment sees the progressive messages that Future Forward brought to the Thai political landscape as an existential threat.
But those very same messages have instilled a sense of hope to many first-time and younger voters. It should not be a surprise to anyone, if the number of Future Forward supporters continues to grow, regardless of today’s verdict.
In fact, according to an internal survey that I had access to, since the elections, the only party whose party identification became stronger is Future Forward.
This is surely due to the victimhood and the double standards that many Thais feel Future Forward and their leaders have been forced to confront.
The establishment and its extended network of influence must weigh the different options, carefully. They need to understand that unity cannot be brought about by simply silencing the opposition.
Rather, the establishment will need to come up with a strategy to win the hearts and minds of the disaffected and that starts with providing a political space where there is a sense of justice on many of the issues confronting Thailand today.
Ridding young people of their representation and making them feel isolated and disenfranchised will do more harm than good in the long run to the country.
And there is a real possibility that this will lead to a fresh round of political violence on the streets. More importantly, this won’t be a Yellow-Red division, but rather a generational cleavage.
Furthermore, lessons from the disbandment of Thaksin and his affiliated parties should be taken into account. The political disenfranchisement of Thaksin’s fan base has brought grievances and disappointment, arguably to the majority of the Thais. While we, as a country, have been stuck in a political quagmire for almost 15 years.
Thaksin has become a political ‘martyr’ for many of his supporters when he definitely doesn’t deserve to be. Don’t make Thanathorn another one.
Fuadi Pitsuwan is a fellow at the School of Public Policy at Chiang Mai University. He is a Doctoral Candidate at the University of Oxford.