Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports said that it was targeting to double the pre-pandemic number of tourists by 2027 but data showed that the best case would be just about the same levels it had seen during 2019.
The country, which recorded a total of nearly 40 million tourists in 2019, said that it has set a target of 80 million by 2027.
The ministry, however, also cautioned that before the country reaches 80 million tourists, it needs to have its infrastructure ready to handle the influx of tourists.
“Before that, Thailand must ensure that there will be enough personnel to accommodate them and we admit that there is a severe shortage of labor in the tourism and services sectors at the moment,” said Tourism and Sports Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn.
“At the same time, Thailand must be prepared to provide safety for the tourists as well,” he added.
Thailand hopes to see up to 25 million tourists by the end of this year from the 10-11 million tourists it had recorded in 2022, which was a far cry from the 400,000 Thailand had seen in 2021 during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Piphat said 25 million visitors were estimated to generate around 2.4 trillion Baht worth of income.
If the ministry manages to reach the target of 80 million tourists, the number of foreign tourists arriving in Thailand would be 10 million more than the current population of around 70 million.
Phiphat said the expected income from 80 million visitors was estimated to be around 5 trillion Baht compared to around 1.93 trillion Baht seen in 2019.
However, the best-case scenario is that the number of tourists will reach 27.65, 33.06, 36.93 and 40.58 million people in 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027 respectively, said Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, the president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA), said while citing data from the national tourism development plan.
The base case scenario is that the number of tourists will reach 13.13, 20.74, 26.74 and 35.17 million people in 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027 respectively, the latter is estimated to generate around 2.25 trillion Baht worth of income.
Expected Tourists Numbers (Year) Best Case Base Case (Million)
2024 27.65 13.13
2025 33.06 20.74
2026 36.93 26.74
2027 40.58 35.17
Sisdivachr also said before talking about welcoming 80 million visitors, the country must have enough flights coming in first.
He said the number of Chinese tourists is expected to reach 15 million in 2027 but there is still uncertainty in this aspect because of the Covid-19 outbreaks on the mainland.
Phiphat said he had instructed related agencies within the tourism ministry to work with agencies from the Ministry of Labor to find ways to ensure that there will be enough workers and employees for the expected increase in the number of visitors over the next 5 years.
He also agrees that the country must also prepare more flights to accommodate the expected increase in air passengers.
In terms of safety, the minister pointed out that there is still a lot of room for improvement as Thailand ranked 92 out of 117 on the World Economic Forum’ list of countries according to the extent to which they expose tourists to security risks and its score of 4.2 index points was lower than ASEAN’s average of 5.4 points.
Swiftest’s Safety Index also listed Thailand as the 12 most dangerous travel destinations out of 50 countries on the list. South Africa was on top of the list followed by India, the Dominican Republic, Mexico and Brazil.
The ministry also reported that out of nearly 40 million foreign tourists in 2019, the number of tourists who were injured stood at 531 and 296 died while visiting Thailand. Of the 296, about 69 died from traffic collisions and 6 due to crimes.
For 2022, about 99 out of 11 million visitors were reportedly injured and 151 died while visiting Thailand. Of that, 41 were via traffic collisions and 6 through crimes.
The ministry is looking to use more technology to provide better safety, come up with carrying capacity for restaurants, entertainment venues and events, enforce road safety rules especially for rented vehicles, promote water safety regulations, increase the number of lifeguards and increase the number of truism volunteers to help at events and be on the lookout for dangers against tourists.
However, Phiphat did not stress anything about the environmental impacts that would likely come with such a high number of tourists in a year.