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Embattled and suspended Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha should bow out of politics before it is too late for him and for the country, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said adding that the 2014 coup leader could lean a thing or 2 from what Thaksin has gone through over the years.
“I am like your elder brother who has gone through all the things you are going through, and I can tell you that you can learn from the pains I have gone through,” Thaksin said late last night from his home in London.
He also predicted that Thailand was gradually heading towards what he calls as ‘political deadlock’.
“I can see Thailand is heading towards a political deadlock,” Thaksin said during his bi-weekly talk on Clubhouse.
The political deadlock, the self-exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin said, was because if the Constitutional Court makes a decision against 2014 coup leader Prayut for his 8-yeaers term limit, then none of the senators would vote for those that remain on the list of Prime Minister and the only option would be for caretaker Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon to be the so called ‘outsider’ Prime Minister.
But for an outside to be the Prime Minister the parliament must vote ¾ majority and that is also likely to be impossible to achieve.
“The candidates that remain on the list are Anutin (Anutin Charnvirakul, the leader of Bhumjai Thai party), Abhisit (Abhisit Vejjajiva of Democrat party), and the 2 candidates from Pheu Thai,” Thaksin said.
Thaksin said that there was no way the senators would vote for Anutin and Democrats may not appoint Abhisit to the position. There is no way that the Pheu Thai party’s candidates would get the backing of the senators. So that leaves for an outsider Prime Minister and getting ¾ majority is next to impossible.
“The only option now is for Prayut to step down and return the power to the people,” Thaksin said.
The Constitutional Court is deliberating the 8-year term of Gen. Prayut and has suspended the 2014 coup leader and Prime Minister from active duties until it makes its decision. A decision could come as early as 1-month or as late as 2-3 months.
Morally Right Thing to Do
A Prime Minister should have morality and in the case of General Prayut he should walk out like Thaksin had undertaken when his family had sold shares in Shin Corporation Plc (now called Intuch Holding Plc – INTUCH) and the family had not paid capital gains taxes.
Thailand’s law does not stipulate that seller of shares on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) are not required to pay capital gains taxes.
“I was accused by the Democrat party and was asked to have moral responsibility, and I showed that I was and dissolved the parliament to hold new elections, but the Democrat party did not stop, and they boycotted the elections,” Thaksin said.
“Trust me (Prayut), I am an elder brother who has gone though all this and the days ahead for you is not going to be a smooth one, you may be happy only on the day you walk back (if the court allows) but thereafter it will be a living hell,” he added.
Morality, he said was needed for any leader and a leader with no moral would not last too long.
Thaksin says that the law specifically stipulates that the Prime Minister cannot stay longer than 8-years and in every which way there is no way one can justify him not being Prime Minister since August 24, 2014.
But in case the Constitutional Court does let Gen. Prayut free, then the key issue would be how will he justify not declaring his assets in 2019 when he became the Prime Minister because he cited that he was continuing with his job as Prime Minister therefore he did not have to declare the assets in 2019.
“If Gen. Prayut is free from the 8-year case then the asset declaration case would be heaped upon him,” Thaksin said.
Prayut’s office has said that he had declared the assets in 2019 but there were no records from the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) which indicated anything in that regard.
Next Elections
Talking about the future, Thaksin said that there were lots of rumors that he and the million dollar worth watch borrower from dead friends – General Prawit, were talking on a daily basis, which is not true.
“I don’t even want to dream about him, so forget about talking to him,” Thaksin said, while added that the hopes of the Phalang Pracharath party (PPRP) and Pheu Thai party joining hands was a far cry.
“The ideologies are very different, how does one think that the 2 parties can work together.”
Thaksin added that after the next elections, the only parties that will be able to nominate candidates for Prime Minister are Pheu Thai, PPRP, Bhumjai Thai party, Democrat party and Move Forward party.
“I don’t think any other party will get more than 25 seats to be eligible to nominate the Prime Minister candidate,” he said stressing the rule that only parties with 25 parliamentary seats or more can nominate a candidate to be Prime Minister as per the current constitution.
“So, the next coalition is going to come from the mixing and matching of these 5 parties,” he said.
The weakest of these 5 parties today is the PPRP although Thaksin said that if Gen. Prawit becomes the Prime Minister then their fortunes will revive for sure but until that happens there is still a lot of uncertainty.
“At the moment there are more members from PPRP looking to go than to come and once election approaches, the shifting of MPs is going to be huge,” he predicted.
Only parties with good election platform and delivery record are going to be able to make it in the next polls.
“PPRP promised a lot, and nothing has been delivered, there is no way they can deliver it now because the government budget is running low and even if Prawit makes it to Prime Minister he would not be able to deliver the promises,” Thaksin stated.
He did not give a time frame to when elections would be held but by law the term of this government ends on March 23, 2023.